Garuda Lions
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DBU Pokalen · Full time ·Round of 64

Skjold Sæby vs Espergærde

3 – 0 Full time

Skjold Sæby 31%
Draw 22%
Espergærde 47%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Skjold Sæby vs Espergærde overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Skjold Sæby vs Espergærde

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySkjold SæbyDrawEspergærde
Model14.8%14.9%70.3%
Market36.3%24.7%39.0%
Final30.9%22.2%46.8%
Edge-21.4%-9.8%+31.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Espergærde

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.32 vs 1.58.
  • The market prices Espergærde below the model: +31.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Skjold Sæby ↓ / Espergærde → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 7% 14% 2 11% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 99%
2+ goals 96%
3+ goals 87%
No goals 1%

Skjold Sæby and Espergærde expected goals

Skjold Sæby 1.58
Espergærde 3.32

Total expected goals: 4.91

Skjold Sæby and Espergærde attack and defence ratings

Skjold Sæby

Attack 1.47 +47%
Defence 0.81 -19%

Espergærde

Attack 1.40 +40%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Skjold Sæby vs Espergærde: result vs prediction

Skjold Sæby 3 – 0 Espergærde

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 64 fixtures

DBU Pokalen

Before and after this match

Skjold Sæby vs Espergærde markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Espergærde 46.8% 2.13 +31.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 86.8% 1.15 — —
Both teams to score Yes 77.3% 1.29 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.8% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Espergærde win 53.3% 1.88 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Skjold Sæby30.9%
Draw22.2%
Espergærde46.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.586.8%
Under 2.513.2%
Both teams to scoreYes77.3%
No22.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)53.2%
12 (either side)77.8%
X2 (draw or away)69.1%
Handicap -1Espergærde win53.3%
Push (exactly one goal)17.5%
Loss29.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-37.1%
1-26.5%
1-45.9%

Skjold Sæby vs Espergærde stats

Skjold Sæby and Espergærde recent form

newest first
Skjold Sæby WLW
Espergærde W

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.

Skjold Sæby vs Espergærde head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Skjold Sæby vs Espergærde odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.3%, draw 24.7%, away 39.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.55 3.80 2.37
Dafabet 2.55 3.80 2.37
Superbet 2.52 3.70 2.37
Unibet 2.55 3.50 2.28

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.55 —
X 3.75 ▲ +0.05
2 2.37 ▲ +0.04

3 snapshots recorded, from .