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Denmark Superliga · Full time ·Matchday 8

FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus

2 – 0 Full time

14′Runar Robinsonn Norheim
18′Kristian Arnstad
42′Eric KahlJacob Andersen
59′Ibrahim AdelHjalte Rasmussen
59′Mark BrinkMalte Heyde
59′Janni SerraTobias Bech Kristensen
60′Rasmus CarstensenLuka Callø
68′Jens Fønsskov Olsen
76′Alexander Lind
77′Frederik EmmeryMikael Anderson
77′Callum McCowattJames Bogere
79′Prince Amoako JuniorVillum Berthelsen
79′Alexander Lind
89′Magnus Knudsen
90′Hjalte Rasmussen

Right to Dream Park, FarumReferee: Jacob Karlsen, Denmark

FC Nordsjaelland 58%
Draw 22%
Aarhus 20%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

19 Shots 12
3 Shots on target 2
53 Possession % 47
2 Corners 4
15 Fouls 7
2 Offsides 0
2 Saves 1
493 Accurate passes 431

FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC NordsjaellandDrawAarhus
Model73.8%16.4%9.8%
Market53.0%23.3%23.6%
Final58.2%21.6%20.2%
Edge+20.8%-7.0%-13.8%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Nordsjaelland

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 0.92.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Nordsjaelland below the model: +20.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Nordsjaella ↓ / Aarhus → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 7% 2 10% 9% 3 9% 8% 4+ 11% 10%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 3%

FC Nordsjaelland and Aarhus expected goals

FC Nordsjaelland 2.68
Aarhus 0.92

Total expected goals: 3.60

FC Nordsjaelland and Aarhus attack and defence ratings

FC Nordsjaelland

Attack 1.29 +29%
Defence 0.68 -32%

Aarhus

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.29 +29%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus: result vs prediction

FC Nordsjaelland 2 – 0 Aarhus

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Denmark Superliga

Before and after this match

FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Nordsjaelland 58.2% 1.72 +20.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 69.7% 1.44 — —
Both teams to score Yes 56.7% 1.76 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 79.8% 1.25 — —
Handicap -1 FC Nordsjaelland win 53.5% 1.87 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Nordsjaelland58.2%
Draw21.6%
Aarhus20.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569.7%
Under 2.530.3%
Both teams to scoreYes56.7%
No43.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)79.8%
12 (either side)78.4%
X2 (draw or away)41.8%
Handicap -1FC Nordsjaelland win53.5%
Push (exactly one goal)20.3%
Loss26.2%
Correct score (top 3)2-09.8%
2-19.0%
3-08.7%

FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus stats

FC Nordsjaelland and Aarhus recent form

newest first
FC Nordsjaelland DLWWWW
Aarhus DLLLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Nordsjaelland and Aarhus going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Nordsjaelland record

  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Aarhus record

  • They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4FC Nordsjaelland wins 2Draws 4Aarhus wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-23FC NordsjaellandAarhusDenmark Superliga1-1
2026-04-10AarhusFC NordsjaellandDenmark Superliga1-1
2025-10-24AarhusFC NordsjaellandDenmark Superliga1-0
2025-09-28FC NordsjaellandAarhusDenmark Superliga1-2
2025-05-16FC NordsjaellandAarhusSuperliga2-0
2025-03-30AarhusFC NordsjaellandSuperliga2-0
2024-11-22FC NordsjaellandAarhusSuperliga1-0
2024-08-31AarhusFC NordsjaellandSuperliga4-2
2024-05-03AarhusFC NordsjaellandSuperliga1-3
2024-04-22FC NordsjaellandAarhusSuperliga7-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Nordsjaelland vs Aarhus odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 52.7%, draw 23.4%, away 23.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.80 3.95 3.75
1xBet 1.78 3.98 3.95
Bet365 1.75 4.00 4.10
BetVictor 1.73 4.00 3.75
Betano 1.82 4.05 3.95
Betfair 1.75 4.10 3.90
Marathonbet 1.76 3.98 3.98
Pinnacle 1.79 4.21 4.15
SBO 1.77 3.54 3.34
Unibet 1.84 3.95 3.65
William Hill 1.75 3.80 3.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.76 ▼ -0.32
X 4.00 ▲ +0.40
2 3.95 ▲ +0.98

17 snapshots recorded, from .