Garuda Lions
Today
Liga Pro · ·Relegation Group - 2

Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC

Garuda Lions Prediction: Delfin SC

1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability

Bet on Delfin SC

Estadio Jocay, MantaReferee: Guillermo Enrique Guerrero Alcivar

Delfin SC 40%
Draw 32%
Mushuc Runa SC 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Delfin SC wins
40%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
81%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
35%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 0
14% of simulated outcomes

Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDelfin SCDrawMushuc Runa SC
Model32.7%36.3%31.0%
Market42.8%29.9%27.2%
Final40.3%31.5%28.2%
Edge-10.2%+6.4%+3.8%

Confidence: Low

Best available price on the pick: 2.23, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.

Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC match preview

Delfin SC and Mushuc Runa SC face off in a closely contested Liga Pro match, with our model giving Delfin SC a 38% chance of victory, while Mushuc Runa SC stands at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Delfin SC, occurring with a 14% probability. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Delfin SC recording two draws and four losses in their last six matches, while Mushuc Runa SC has three draws and one win in the same period.

The expected goals for Delfin SC is 0.88, slightly ahead of Mushuc Runa SC at 0.85, indicating a tight match. The probability of over 2.5 goals is at 25%, and the likelihood of both teams scoring is estimated at 35%. Historically, in their last ten encounters, Delfin SC has secured five wins compared to Mushuc Runa SC's four.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Delfin SC ↓ / Mushuc Runa SC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 19% 14% 1 14% 15% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 81%
2+ goals 53%
3+ goals 25%
No goals 19%

Delfin SC and Mushuc Runa SC expected goals

Delfin SC 0.88
Mushuc Runa SC 0.85

Total expected goals: 1.73

Delfin SC and Mushuc Runa SC attack and defence ratings

Delfin SC

Attack 0.72 -28%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Mushuc Runa SC

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Relegation Group - 2 fixtures

Liga Pro

Before and after this match

Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Delfin SC 40.3% 2.48 -10.2% 2.23
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 74.9% 1.34 — —
Both teams to score No 65.1% 1.54 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 71.8% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 67.2% 1.49 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Delfin SC40.3%
Draw31.5%
Mushuc Runa SC28.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.525.1%
Under 2.574.9%
Both teams to scoreYes34.9%
No65.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.8%
12 (either side)68.5%
X2 (draw or away)59.7%
Handicap -1Delfin SC win11.9%
Push (exactly one goal)20.9%
Loss67.2%
Correct score (top 3)0-019.0%
1-114.6%
1-014.3%
Compare prices for this pick

Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC stats

Delfin SC and Mushuc Runa SC recent form

newest first
Delfin SC DDLWLL
Mushuc Runa SC DLDDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Delfin SC and Mushuc Runa SC season so far

league record

Delfin SC record

  • They have won 7 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 14 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Mushuc Runa SC record

  • They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Delfin SC wins 1Draws 4Mushuc Runa SC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-28Mushuc Runa SCDelfin SCLiga Pro1-0
2026-05-03Delfin SCMushuc Runa SCLiga Pro1-0
2025-06-15Delfin SCMushuc Runa SCLiga Pro3-1
2025-02-18Mushuc Runa SCDelfin SCLiga Pro2-0
2024-11-08Delfin SCMushuc Runa SCLiga Pro4-2
2024-05-19Mushuc Runa SCDelfin SCLiga Pro5-0
2023-09-16Mushuc Runa SCDelfin SCLiga Pro2-0
2023-04-16Delfin SCMushuc Runa SCLiga Pro3-0
2022-09-25Delfin SCMushuc Runa SCLiga Pro0-0
2022-04-09Mushuc Runa SCDelfin SCLiga Pro1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.8%, draw 29.9%, away 27.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.21 3.10 3.40
Bet365 2.10 3.10 3.40
BetVictor 2.00 2.75 3.00
Betano 2.18 3.10 3.45
Betfair 2.10 3.00 3.30
Dafabet 2.15 3.15 3.40
Marathonbet 2.11 2.96 3.26
Pinnacle 2.23 3.12 3.56
SBO 2.15 2.87 2.96
William Hill 2.10 2.80 3.30
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.13 ▼ -0.49
X 3.05 ▲ +0.05
2 3.35 ▲ +0.76

37 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Delfin SC Predicted score 1 – 0 Low Bet Now
v Bet Now