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Liga Pro · Full time ·Relegation Group - 2

Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC

3 – 2 Full time

20′José Hernández
31′Renso Tufino
35′Ronny Biojó
41′Jefferson Arce
45′Erick Zuniga
48′Cristopher Angulo
56′Franco Ayunta
62′Renso TufinoElian Caicedo
62′Freddy MinaJackson Alexander González Simisterra
63′Arnaldo ZambranoBryan Corozo
66′Gerónimo HerediaLuis Armando Castro Garzón
66′Jefferson ArceKevin Ushina
75′Tomson MindaLucas Maximiliano·Lemos Mayuncaldi
75′Nicolás DavilaKevin Peralta
81′Bryan HernandezMaikel Reyes
87′Maikel Reyes
87′Maikel Reyes
90′Jonathan MorochoEmerson Leao Espinoza Tenorio
90′Danny LunaDarío Aimar

Estadio Jocay, MantaReferee: Guillermo Enrique Guerrero Alcivar

Delfin SC 40%
Draw 32%
Mushuc Runa SC 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

17 Shots 11
7 Shots on target 5
70 Possession % 30
2 Corners 7
11 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 0
2 Saves 4
377 Accurate passes 117

Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDelfin SCDrawMushuc Runa SC
Model32.7%36.3%31.0%
Market42.8%29.9%27.2%
Final40.3%31.5%28.2%
Edge-2.5%+1.6%+0.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Delfin SC ↓ / Mushuc Runa SC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 19% 14% 1 14% 15% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 81%
2+ goals 53%
3+ goals 25%
No goals 19%

Delfin SC and Mushuc Runa SC expected goals

Delfin SC 0.88
Mushuc Runa SC 0.85

Total expected goals: 1.73

Delfin SC and Mushuc Runa SC attack and defence ratings

Delfin SC

Attack 0.72 -28%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Mushuc Runa SC

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC: result vs prediction

Delfin SC 3 – 2 Mushuc Runa SC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Relegation Group - 2 fixtures

Liga Pro

Before and after this match

Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Delfin SC 40.3% 2.48 -2.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 74.9% 1.34 — —
Both teams to score No 65.1% 1.54 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 71.8% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 67.2% 1.49 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Delfin SC40.3%
Draw31.5%
Mushuc Runa SC28.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.525.1%
Under 2.574.9%
Both teams to scoreYes34.9%
No65.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.8%
12 (either side)68.5%
X2 (draw or away)59.7%
Handicap -1Delfin SC win11.9%
Push (exactly one goal)20.9%
Loss67.2%
Correct score (top 3)0-019.0%
1-114.6%
1-014.3%

Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC stats

Delfin SC and Mushuc Runa SC recent form

newest first
Delfin SC DDLWLL
Mushuc Runa SC DLDDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Delfin SC and Mushuc Runa SC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Delfin SC record

  • They have won 7 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 14 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Mushuc Runa SC record

  • They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Delfin SC wins 1Draws 4Mushuc Runa SC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-28Mushuc Runa SCDelfin SCLiga Pro1-0
2026-05-03Delfin SCMushuc Runa SCLiga Pro1-0
2025-06-15Delfin SCMushuc Runa SCLiga Pro3-1
2025-02-18Mushuc Runa SCDelfin SCLiga Pro2-0
2024-11-08Delfin SCMushuc Runa SCLiga Pro4-2
2024-05-19Mushuc Runa SCDelfin SCLiga Pro5-0
2023-09-16Mushuc Runa SCDelfin SCLiga Pro2-0
2023-04-16Delfin SCMushuc Runa SCLiga Pro3-0
2022-09-25Delfin SCMushuc Runa SCLiga Pro0-0
2022-04-09Mushuc Runa SCDelfin SCLiga Pro1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.8%, draw 29.9%, away 27.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.21 3.10 3.40
Bet365 2.10 3.10 3.40
BetVictor 2.00 2.75 3.00
Betano 2.18 3.10 3.45
Betfair 2.10 3.00 3.30
Dafabet 2.15 3.15 3.40
Marathonbet 2.11 2.96 3.26
Pinnacle 2.23 3.12 3.56
SBO 2.15 2.87 2.96
William Hill 2.10 2.80 3.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.13 ▼ -0.49
X 3.05 ▲ +0.05
2 3.35 ▲ +0.76

37 snapshots recorded, from .