Orense SC
vs
Deportivo Cuenca
Garuda Lions Prediction: Orense SC
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca
| Probability | Orense SC | Draw | Deportivo Cuenca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.8% | 29.8% | 24.3% |
| Market | 43.4% | 28.9% | 27.6% |
| Final | 44.0% | 29.2% | 26.8% |
| Edge | +2.4% | +0.9% | -3.3% |
Why Orense SC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 0.94.
- The market prices Orense SC below the model: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca match preview
Orense SC faces Deportivo Cuenca in the Liga Pro with a predicted probability of 44% for a home win, while the chances of a draw stand at 29% and an away victory at 27%. The most likely scoreline according to our model is 1-0, with a probability of 12%. Expected goals suggest Orense SC will score 1.39, compared to Deportivo Cuenca's 0.94, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
Recent form shows Orense SC struggling with five losses in their last six matches, while Deportivo Cuenca has recorded two draws and a win in their last six outings. In their last four encounters, Orense SC has dominated with three wins and one draw against Deportivo Cuenca, who has yet to secure a victory in this matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Orense SC and Deportivo Cuenca expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.33
Orense SC and Deportivo Cuenca attack and defence ratings
Orense SC
Deportivo Cuenca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Relegation Group - 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orense SC | 44.0% | 2.27 | +2.4% | 2.19 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orense SC | 44.0% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Deportivo Cuenca | 26.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.1% |
| No | 52.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Orense SC win | 22.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 54.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 12.2% | |
| 0-0 | 11.0% |
Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca stats
Orense SC and Deportivo Cuenca recent form
| Orense SC |
LLWLLL |
| Deportivo Cuenca |
DDLWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Orense SC and Deportivo Cuenca season so far
Orense SC record
- They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Cuenca record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Orense SC | Deportivo Cuenca | Liga Pro | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Deportivo Cuenca | Orense SC | Liga Pro | 1-3 |
| 2025-08-31 | Deportivo Cuenca | Orense SC | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-10 | Orense SC | Deportivo Cuenca | Liga Pro | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.4%, draw 28.9%, away 27.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.15 | 3.26 | 3.34 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.09 | 3.15 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.06 | 3.12 | 3.20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.19 | 3.23 | 3.34 |
| SBO | 2.04 | 2.91 | 2.97 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 2.90 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .