Mushuc Runa SC
vs
Orense SC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mushuc Runa SC
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC
| Probability | Mushuc Runa SC | Draw | Orense SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.7% | 27.7% | 22.5% |
| Market | 50.6% | 27.4% | 22.0% |
| Final | 50.4% | 27.5% | 22.1% |
| Edge | -0.8% | +0.3% | +0.5% |
Why Mushuc Runa SC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.98.
Best available price on the pick: 1.90, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC match preview
Mushuc Runa SC faces Orense SC in a Liga Pro matchup with kickoff scheduled for October 18, 2026. According to our model, Mushuc Runa SC has a 52% probability of winning, while the chances of a draw stand at 27% and Orense SC at 21%. The expected goals for Mushuc Runa SC is 1.57 compared to Orense SC's 0.98, indicating a potential edge for the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 11% probability.
In terms of recent form, Mushuc Runa SC has recorded one win, three draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Orense SC has struggled, with one win and four losses in the same span. Historically, in their last five encounters, Mushuc Runa SC has secured two victories, while Orense SC has won three times. The confidence grade for this fixture is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mushuc Runa SC and Orense SC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.55
Mushuc Runa SC and Orense SC attack and defence ratings
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Relegation Group - 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mushuc Runa SC | 50.4% | 1.99 | -0.8% | 1.90 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.9% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mushuc Runa SC | 50.4% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Orense SC | 22.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% |
| No | 49.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mushuc Runa SC win | 26.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 50.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | |
| 2-0 | 9.6% |
Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC stats
Mushuc Runa SC and Orense SC recent form
| Mushuc Runa SC |
LDLDDW |
| Orense SC |
DLLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mushuc Runa SC and Orense SC season so far
Mushuc Runa SC record
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Orense SC record
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Mushuc Runa SC | Orense SC | Liga Pro | 2-1 |
| 2026-03-19 | Orense SC | Mushuc Runa SC | Liga Pro | 3-2 |
| 2025-09-14 | Orense SC | Mushuc Runa SC | Liga Pro | 3-1 |
| 2025-05-17 | Mushuc Runa SC | Orense SC | Liga Pro | 2-5 |
| 2025-03-06 | Mushuc Runa SC | Orense SC | CONMEBOL Sudamericana | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.6%, draw 27.4%, away 22.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.86 | 3.38 | 4.23 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.88 | 3.35 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.78 | 3.24 | 4.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.78 | 3.45 | 4.55 |
| SBO | 1.78 | 3.04 | 3.61 |
| William Hill | 1.83 | 3.10 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .