Orense SC
vs
Tecnico Universitario
Garuda Lions Prediction: Orense SC
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 0.89.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Orense SC vs Tecnico Universitario overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Orense SC vs Tecnico Universitario
| Probability | Orense SC | Draw | Tecnico Universitario |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.4% | 22.7% | 14.9% |
| Market | 50.4% | 28.4% | 21.3% |
| Final | 53.4% | 26.9% | 19.7% |
| Edge | +3.0% | -1.4% | -1.6% |
Why Orense SC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Orense SC below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.3% per unit staked (our 53.4% × 1.85 − 1).
Orense SC vs Tecnico Universitario match preview
Orense SC enters the match against Tecnico Universitario with a probability of 53% to win, while the visitors have a 20% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-0 in favor of Orense SC, with an expected goals tally of 2.01 for Orense SC compared to 0.89 for Tecnico Universitario. The model indicates a 55% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Orense SC has recorded a win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches, while Tecnico Universitario has struggled with two losses, a draw, and one win. The head-to-head record over the last four encounters shows Orense SC with two wins, one draw, and one loss against Tecnico Universitario. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Orense SC and Tecnico Universitario expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.90
Orense SC and Tecnico Universitario attack and defence ratings
Orense SC
Tecnico Universitario
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Relegation Group - 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Orense SC vs Tecnico Universitario markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orense SC | 53.4% | 1.87 | +3.0% | 1.85 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Orense SC win | 39.0% | 2.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orense SC | 53.4% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Tecnico Universitario | 19.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.0% |
| No | 48.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Orense SC win | 39.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 37.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.1% |
| 1-1 | 10.8% | |
| 1-0 | 10.1% |
Orense SC vs Tecnico Universitario stats
Orense SC and Tecnico Universitario recent form
| Orense SC |
WDDLLW |
| Tecnico Universitario |
LLDWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Orense SC and Tecnico Universitario season so far
Orense SC record
- They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tecnico Universitario record
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Orense SC vs Tecnico Universitario head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Orense SC | Tecnico Universitario | Liga Pro | 1-2 |
| 2026-02-28 | Tecnico Universitario | Orense SC | Liga Pro | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-08 | Tecnico Universitario | Orense SC | Liga Pro | 1-2 |
| 2025-03-11 | Orense SC | Tecnico Universitario | Liga Pro | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Orense SC vs Tecnico Universitario odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.4%, draw 28.4%, away 21.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.25 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.85 | 3.25 | 4.45 |
| Marathonbet | 1.75 | 3.20 | 4.30 |