Águila
vs
Municipal Limeño
Garuda Lions Prediction: Águila
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.88 vs 1.86.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Águila is the favourite, not a value bet.
Águila vs Municipal Limeño overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Águila vs Municipal Limeño
| Probability | Águila | Draw | Municipal Limeño |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.8% | 18.0% | 23.2% |
| Market | 52.1% | 26.9% | 20.9% |
| Final | 53.8% | 24.7% | 21.5% |
| Edge | +1.7% | -2.2% | +0.6% |
Why Águila
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.88 vs 1.86.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.2% per unit staked (our 53.8% × 1.80 − 1).
Águila vs Municipal Limeño match preview
Águila enters the match against Municipal Limeño with a 54% probability of winning, while the draw stands at 25% and Municipal Limeño at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, with an expected goals tally of 2.88 for Águila and 1.86 for Municipal Limeño. Recent form shows Águila has secured three wins in their last five matches, while Municipal Limeño has struggled, with only one win in the same period.
In terms of scoring, the model indicates an 85% chance of over 2.5 goals and an 80% probability that both teams will score. Historically, Águila has dominated their recent encounters with Municipal Limeño, winning 7 out of the last 10 matchups, with only 2 wins for Municipal Limeño and 1 draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Águila and Municipal Limeño expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.74
Águila and Municipal Limeño attack and defence ratings
Águila
Municipal Limeño
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 20 fixtures
Before and after this match
Águila vs Municipal Limeño markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Águila | 53.8% | 1.86 | +1.7% | 1.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.2% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.1% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.5% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.2% | 2.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Águila | 53.8% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Municipal Limeño | 21.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 14.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80.1% |
| No | 19.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Águila win | 40.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.4% | |
| Loss | 41.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 6.7% |
| 3-1 | 6.5% | |
| 2-2 | 6.3% |
Águila vs Municipal Limeño stats
Águila and Municipal Limeño recent form
| Águila |
LWWDWW |
| Municipal Limeño |
LDDDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Águila and Municipal Limeño season so far
Águila record
- They have won 8 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 19 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Municipal Limeño record
- They have won 6 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 20 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Águila vs Municipal Limeño head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Municipal Limeño | Águila | Primera Division | 0-0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Municipal Limeño | Águila | Primera Division | 2-0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Águila | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-19 | Municipal Limeño | Águila | Primera Division | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-17 | Águila | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-03 | Municipal Limeño | Águila | Primera Division | 0-2 |
| 2025-03-09 | Águila | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division | 0-2 |
| 2024-11-25 | Municipal Limeño | Águila | Primera Division | 0-2 |
| 2024-09-19 | Águila | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division | 3-1 |
| 2024-04-07 | Municipal Limeño | Águila | Primera Division | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Águila vs Municipal Limeño odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.1%, draw 26.9%, away 20.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.69 | 3.34 | 4.62 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.13 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 3.35 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.78 | 3.45 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.67 | 3.34 | 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.78 | 3.35 | 4.31 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .