Atletico Balboa
vs
Inca Aruba
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico Balboa
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.04.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Atletico Balboa is the favourite, not a value bet.
Atletico Balboa vs Inca Aruba overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Balboa vs Inca Aruba
| Probability | Atletico Balboa | Draw | Inca Aruba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.1% | 26.1% | 21.8% |
| Market | 53.9% | 24.5% | 21.7% |
| Final | 53.4% | 24.9% | 21.7% |
| Edge | -0.4% | +0.4% | +0.0% |
Why Atletico Balboa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.1% per unit staked (our 53.4% × 1.72 − 1).
Atletico Balboa vs Inca Aruba match preview
Atletico Balboa is set to face Inca Aruba in the Primera Division on November 12, 2026. According to our model, Atletico Balboa has a 53% probability of winning, while Inca Aruba stands at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Atletico Balboa, with an expected goals tally of 1.72 for them compared to 1.04 for Inca Aruba. Recent form shows Atletico Balboa with three wins and a draw in their last six matches, while Inca Aruba has struggled, registering four losses and two draws.
In their previous head-to-head encounter, Inca Aruba secured a victory, highlighting their competitive edge. Our model indicates a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% likelihood that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Balboa and Inca Aruba expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.76
Atletico Balboa and Inca Aruba attack and defence ratings
Atletico Balboa
Inca Aruba
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 20 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico Balboa vs Inca Aruba markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Balboa | 53.4% | 1.87 | -0.4% | 1.72 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.3% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.9% | 2.09 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Balboa | 53.4% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Inca Aruba | 21.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% |
| No | 45.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Balboa win | 29.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 47.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 1-0 | 9.8% | |
| 2-1 | 9.7% |
Atletico Balboa vs Inca Aruba stats
Atletico Balboa and Inca Aruba recent form
| Atletico Balboa |
WWWDLL |
| Inca Aruba |
DLLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Balboa and Inca Aruba season so far
Atletico Balboa record
- They have won 6 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 19 matches.
Inca Aruba record
- They have won 4 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 19 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Atletico Balboa vs Inca Aruba head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Inca Aruba | Atletico Balboa | Primera Division | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico Balboa vs Inca Aruba odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.9%, draw 24.5%, away 21.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 3.72 | 4.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.60 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.65 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.72 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.61 | 3.72 | 4.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69 | 3.82 | 4.28 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .