Inca Aruba
vs
Águila
Garuda Lions Prediction: Águila
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.08.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Inca Aruba vs Águila overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Inca Aruba vs Águila
| Probability | Inca Aruba | Draw | Águila |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.2% | 21.0% | 62.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 16.2% | 21.0% | 62.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Águila
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Inca Aruba vs Águila match preview
In the upcoming Primera Division match, Inca Aruba faces Águila with the model predicting a 16% chance of an Inca Aruba victory, a 21% chance of a draw, and a 63% likelihood of an Águila win. The expected goals for Inca Aruba stand at 1.08, while Águila is projected to score 2.25. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which has a 10% probability.
Recent form shows Inca Aruba struggling with five losses and one draw in their last six matches, while Águila has performed better, securing four wins, one draw, and one loss in the same timeframe. The model indicates a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% probability that both teams will score, suggesting a potentially high-scoring encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Inca Aruba and Águila expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.33
Inca Aruba and Águila attack and defence ratings
Inca Aruba
Águila
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Apertura - 21 fixtures
Before and after this match
Inca Aruba vs Águila markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Águila | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.7% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.8% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Águila win | 41.0% | 2.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inca Aruba | 16.2% |
| Draw | 21.0% | |
| Águila | 62.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% |
| No | 40.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 37.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Águila win | 41.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 37.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.8% |
| 1-1 | 9.6% | |
| 0-2 | 9.1% |
Inca Aruba vs Águila stats
Inca Aruba and Águila recent form
| Inca Aruba |
DLLLLD |
| Águila |
LWWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Inca Aruba and Águila season so far
Inca Aruba record
- They have won 4 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 19 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Águila record
- They have won 8 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 19 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Inca Aruba vs Águila head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Águila | Inca Aruba | Primera Division | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.