Veikkausliiga
·
Full time
·Championship Group - 25
Gnistan
vs
HJK Helsinki
1 – 1 Full time
| 22′ | Stephen Ayomide Oluwagbenga Obileye | ||
| 24′ | Pyry Mentu | ||
| 50′ | Till CissokhoMihailo Bogicevic | ||
| 60′ | Joakim LatonenGabriel Europaeus | ||
| 60′ | Roman EremenkoSaku Ylätupa | ||
| 63′ | Martin KirilovMads Borchers | ||
| 63′ | Lassi LappalainenSanteri Haarala | ||
| 79′ | Danny PérezKosmo Launiala | ||
| 81′ | Stephen Ayomide Oluwagbenga ObileyeJuhani Ojala | ||
| 84′ | Kosmo Launiala | ||
| 84′ | Jussi Leppälahti | ||
| 87′ | Leonel MontanoNikolai Alho | ||
| 87′ | Alexander RingLucas Lingman |
Gnistan
27%
Draw
25%
HJK Helsinki
48%
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 18 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 42 | Possession % | 58 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Offsides | 4 |
| 4 | Saves | 1 |
| 183 | Accurate passes | 475 |
Gnistan vs HJK Helsinki overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gnistan vs HJK Helsinki
| Probability | Gnistan | Draw | HJK Helsinki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.8% | 28.7% | 29.5% |
| Market | 22.5% | 23.8% | 53.7% |
| Final | 27.4% | 25.0% | 47.6% |
| Edge | +19.3% | +4.9% | -24.2% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
91%
2+ goals
74%
3+ goals
48%
No goals
9%
Gnistan and HJK Helsinki expected goals
Gnistan
1.43
HJK Helsinki
1.16
Total expected goals: 2.59
Gnistan and HJK Helsinki attack and defence ratings
Gnistan
Attack
1.14 +14%
Defence
0.85 -15%
HJK Helsinki
Attack
0.99 -1%
Defence
0.80 -20%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Gnistan vs HJK Helsinki: result vs prediction
Gnistan 1 – 1 HJK Helsinki
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Championship Group - 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gnistan vs HJK Helsinki markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HJK Helsinki | 47.6% | 2.10 | -24.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gnistan | 27.4% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| HJK Helsinki | 47.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.5% |
| No | 46.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | HJK Helsinki win | 12.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.0% | |
| Loss | 70.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 9.5% | |
| 2-1 | 8.9% |
Gnistan vs HJK Helsinki stats
Gnistan and HJK Helsinki recent form
| Gnistan |
WDDWWD |
| HJK Helsinki |
DWWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gnistan and HJK Helsinki going into this match
Gnistan record
- They have won 11 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
HJK Helsinki record
- They have won 12 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gnistan vs HJK Helsinki head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Gnistan wins
1Draws
5HJK Helsinki wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | HJK Helsinki | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 2-3 |
| 2026-04-18 | Gnistan | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 0-3 |
| 2026-03-10 | HJK Helsinki | Gnistan | Friendlies Clubs | 3-0 |
| 2026-02-07 | HJK Helsinki | Gnistan | League Cup | 3-1 |
| 2025-11-03 | Gnistan | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-03 | HJK Helsinki | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 2-3 |
| 2025-07-28 | Gnistan | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 2-4 |
| 2025-04-22 | HJK Helsinki | Gnistan | Veikkausliiga | 0-1 |
| 2025-01-11 | HJK Helsinki | Gnistan | League Cup | 0-1 |
| 2024-06-12 | Gnistan | HJK Helsinki | Veikkausliiga | 0-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gnistan vs HJK Helsinki odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 22.5%, draw 23.8%, away 53.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.12 | 4.00 | 1.73 |
| Bet365 | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.70 |
| BetVictor | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.67 |
| Betano | 4.20 | 3.85 | 1.75 |
| Betfair | 4.10 | 3.90 | 1.65 |
| Marathonbet | 4.10 | 4.05 | 1.71 |
| Pinnacle | 4.37 | 4.25 | 1.75 |
| SBO | 3.89 | 3.67 | 1.73 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.73 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
4.12 ▲ +1.04
X
3.90 ▲ +0.20
2
1.73 ▼ -0.29
13 snapshots recorded, from .