Veikkausliiga
·
Full time
·Relegation Group - 26
Mariehamn
vs
Ilves
1 – 1 Full time
| 35′ | Samson Ngulube | ||
| 43′ | Sauli Väisänen | ||
| 45′ | Goudouss Bamba | ||
| 64′ | Samson NgulubeAaro Soiniemi | ||
| 64′ | Anttoni HuttunenThomas Klemetsen Jakobsen | ||
| 66′ | Matias Rale | ||
| 66′ | Goudouss BambaMaksim Stjopin | ||
| 66′ | Oskari MultalaYiandro Raap | ||
| 67′ | Elias TamminenStanislav Baranov | ||
| 69′ | Teemu Hytönen | ||
| 74′ | Arvid Bergvik | ||
| 78′ | Matias RaleTatu Miettunen | ||
| 81′ | Adam LarssonMarlo Hyvonen | ||
| 84′ | Thomas Klemetsen Jakobsen | ||
| 87′ | Teemu HytönenHamidou Coulibaly | ||
| 88′ | Adam StroudWille Nuñez |
Mariehamn
29%
Draw
26%
Ilves
45%
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 16 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 56 | Possession % | 44 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Offsides | 1 |
| 3 | Saves | 1 |
| 458 | Accurate passes | 338 |
Mariehamn vs Ilves overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mariehamn vs Ilves
| Probability | Mariehamn | Draw | Ilves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.8% | 26.9% | 53.3% |
| Market | 32.4% | 25.7% | 42.0% |
| Final | 29.2% | 26.0% | 44.8% |
| Edge | -3.1% | +0.3% | +2.8% |
Why Ilves
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.92.
- The market prices Ilves below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
91%
2+ goals
74%
3+ goals
47%
No goals
9%
Mariehamn and Ilves expected goals
Mariehamn
0.92
Ilves
1.65
Total expected goals: 2.57
Mariehamn and Ilves attack and defence ratings
Mariehamn
Attack
0.85 -15%
Defence
1.11 +11%
Ilves
Attack
1.08 +8%
Defence
0.70 -30%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Mariehamn vs Ilves: result vs prediction
Mariehamn 1 – 1 Ilves
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Relegation Group - 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mariehamn vs Ilves markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ilves | 44.8% | 2.23 | +2.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.6% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mariehamn | 29.2% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Ilves | 44.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.7% |
| No | 50.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ilves win | 29.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 46.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 0-1 | 11.5% | |
| 0-2 | 10.4% |
Mariehamn vs Ilves stats
Mariehamn and Ilves recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mariehamn and Ilves going into this match
Mariehamn record
- They have won 4 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ilves record
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 10 penalties (90%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mariehamn vs Ilves head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
1Mariehamn wins
3Draws
5Ilves wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Ilves | Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Mariehamn | Ilves | Veikkausliiga | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-31 | Ilves | Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-27 | Mariehamn | Ilves | Veikkausliiga | 3-2 |
| 2024-08-11 | Ilves | Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga | 2-0 |
| 2024-04-28 | Mariehamn | Ilves | Veikkausliiga | 0-1 |
| 2023-09-27 | Ilves | Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga | 2-1 |
| 2023-07-15 | Ilves | Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga | 0-0 |
| 2023-04-05 | Mariehamn | Ilves | Veikkausliiga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mariehamn vs Ilves odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.4%, draw 25.7%, away 42.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.92 | 3.70 | 2.19 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 3.00 | 3.55 | 2.20 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.65 | 2.29 |
| Marathonbet | 2.91 | 3.70 | 2.17 |
| Pinnacle | 2.94 | 3.84 | 2.28 |
| SBO | 2.63 | 3.28 | 2.24 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.85 ▼ -0.19
X
3.60 —
2
2.20 ▲ +0.10
19 snapshots recorded, from .