Mariehamn
vs
Ilves
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ilves
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Mariehamn vs Ilves overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mariehamn vs Ilves
| Probability | Mariehamn | Draw | Ilves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.8% | 26.9% | 53.3% |
| Market | 32.4% | 25.5% | 42.1% |
| Final | 29.2% | 25.8% | 44.9% |
| Edge | -12.6% | +1.4% | +11.2% |
Why Ilves
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.92.
- The market prices Ilves below the model: +11.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.29, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Mariehamn vs Ilves match preview
Mariehamn faces Ilves in the Veikkausliiga on October 10, 2026. The model gives Mariehamn a 29% chance of winning, while Ilves holds a 45% probability, with a 26% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a 12% probability, and there is a 50% chance that both teams will score. Expected goals suggest Mariehamn will generate 0.91, compared to Ilves' 1.65.
In terms of recent form, Mariehamn has shown resilience with three wins in their last six matches, while Ilves has struggled, winning only three of their last six. The head-to-head record in the last four encounters favors Ilves slightly, with two wins compared to Mariehamn's one victory and one draw. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mariehamn and Ilves expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.56
Mariehamn and Ilves attack and defence ratings
Mariehamn
Ilves
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Relegation Group - 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mariehamn vs Ilves markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ilves | 44.9% | 2.23 | +11.2% | 2.29 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.4% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.7% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mariehamn | 29.2% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Ilves | 44.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.6% |
| No | 50.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ilves win | 29.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.8% | |
| Loss | 46.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 0-1 | 11.5% | |
| 0-2 | 10.4% |
Mariehamn vs Ilves stats
Mariehamn and Ilves recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mariehamn and Ilves season so far
Mariehamn record
- They have won 4 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ilves record
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 10 penalties (90%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mariehamn vs Ilves head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Ilves | Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Mariehamn | Ilves | Veikkausliiga | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-31 | Ilves | Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-27 | Mariehamn | Ilves | Veikkausliiga | 3-2 |
| 2024-08-11 | Ilves | Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga | 2-0 |
| 2024-04-28 | Mariehamn | Ilves | Veikkausliiga | 0-1 |
| 2023-09-27 | Ilves | Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga | 2-1 |
| 2023-07-15 | Ilves | Mariehamn | Veikkausliiga | 0-0 |
| 2023-04-05 | Mariehamn | Ilves | Veikkausliiga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mariehamn vs Ilves odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.4%, draw 25.5%, away 42.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.92 | 3.70 | 2.19 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 3.00 | 3.55 | 2.20 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.70 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.65 | 2.29 |
| Marathonbet | 2.91 | 3.70 | 2.17 |
| Pinnacle | 2.92 | 3.79 | 2.25 |
| SBO | 2.66 | 3.30 | 2.12 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
18 snapshots recorded, from .