Chalon
vs
Hauts Lyonnais
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hauts Lyonnais
0 – 1 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.27 vs 0.93.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Chalon vs Hauts Lyonnais overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chalon vs Hauts Lyonnais
| Probability | Chalon | Draw | Hauts Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.8% | 31.2% | 43.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 25.8% | 31.2% | 43.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Hauts Lyonnais
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.27 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Chalon vs Hauts Lyonnais match preview
Chalon faces Hauts Lyonnais in the Coupe de France with a probability model indicating a 26% chance of victory for Chalon, while Hauts Lyonnais has a 43% chance of winning. The likelihood of a draw stands at 31%. The most probable scoreline suggested by the model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 13%. Expected goals for Chalon are 0.93, compared to Hauts Lyonnais's 1.27.
Recent form shows Chalon with a loss followed by a win, while Hauts Lyonnais has a mixed record with one loss, two draws, and three wins in their last six matches. The model indicates a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance for both teams to score. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chalon and Hauts Lyonnais expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.20
Chalon and Hauts Lyonnais attack and defence ratings
Chalon
Hauts Lyonnais
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Boulay v Sochaux — match page
- Rhone-Crussol v Fréjus St-Raphaël — match page
- Vendée Fontenay vs Clermont Foot
- Choisy au Bac v Caen — match page
- Croix Football IC vs Thaon
- Le Poiré sur Vie vs USSA Vertou — team news & stats
- Cheruy vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 — team news & stats
- St Sebastien vs La Baule-Le Pouliguen
Chalon vs Hauts Lyonnais markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hauts Lyonnais | 43.1% | 2.32 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.3% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chalon | 25.8% |
| Draw | 31.2% | |
| Hauts Lyonnais | 43.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.8% |
| No | 55.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hauts Lyonnais win | 20.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 56.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-1 | 12.8% | |
| 0-0 | 12.4% |
Chalon vs Hauts Lyonnais stats
Chalon and Hauts Lyonnais recent form
| Chalon |
LW |
| Hauts Lyonnais |
LWDDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.