St-Philbert Gd Lieu
vs
La Roche VF
Garuda Lions Prediction: La Roche VF
0 – 2 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 0.89.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF overview
Garuda Lions analysis: St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF
| Probability | St-Philbert Gd Lieu | Draw | La Roche VF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15.9% | 23.8% | 60.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 15.9% | 23.8% | 60.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why La Roche VF
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 0.89.
St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF match preview
In the upcoming Coupe de France match, St-Philbert Gd Lieu faces La Roche VF, with the probabilities from our model indicating a 16% chance for St-Philbert to win, a 24% chance for a draw, and a 60% probability favoring La Roche VF. The expected goals are 0.89 for St-Philbert and 1.91 for La Roche, suggesting a significant advantage for the visitors.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-2, occurring with an 11% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, while both teams scoring has a probability of 51%. Recent form shows St-Philbert with one win in their last three matches, while La Roche has also secured one victory in their recent outings.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
St-Philbert Gd Lieu and La Roche VF expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.81
St-Philbert Gd Lieu and La Roche VF attack and defence ratings
St-Philbert Gd Lieu
La Roche VF
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | La Roche VF | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 84.1% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.7% | 2.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St-Philbert Gd Lieu | 15.9% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| La Roche VF | 60.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% |
| No | 48.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 39.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 84.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | La Roche VF win | 36.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 39.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 0-2 | 11.1% | |
| 0-1 | 10.5% |
St-Philbert Gd Lieu vs La Roche VF stats
St-Philbert Gd Lieu and La Roche VF recent form
| St-Philbert Gd Lieu |
LDW |
| La Roche VF |
LDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.