Dijon
vs
Orleans
Garuda Lions Prediction: Orleans
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 1.17.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Dijon vs Orleans overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dijon vs Orleans
| Probability | Dijon | Draw | Orleans |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15.8% | 19.5% | 64.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 15.8% | 19.5% | 64.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Orleans
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 1.17.
Dijon vs Orleans match preview
Dijon faces Orleans in the Coupe de France with a significant disparity in expected performance. Our model assigns Dijon a 16% chance of victory, while Orleans is favored at 65%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability. Dijon has recorded a recent form of W-L-L-W-W-W, whereas Orleans shows a stronger trend with L-W-W-W-D-W.
The expected goals for Dijon stand at 1.17, compared to Orleans' 2.44, indicating a potential for a high-scoring match. Additionally, there is a 70% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dijon and Orleans expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.61
Dijon and Orleans attack and defence ratings
Dijon
Orleans
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Dijon vs Orleans markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orleans | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.0% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 84.2% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Orleans win | 43.7% | 2.29 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dijon | 15.8% |
| Draw | 19.5% | |
| Orleans | 64.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.7% |
| No | 36.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 35.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 84.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Orleans win | 43.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 35.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.4% |
| 1-1 | 8.5% | |
| 0-2 | 8.1% |
Dijon vs Orleans stats
Dijon and Orleans recent form
| Dijon |
WLLWWW |
| Orleans |
LWWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.