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Ligue 2 · ·Matchday 12

Dijon vs RED Star FC 93

Garuda Lions Prediction: Dijon

2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 1.69.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on Dijon
Dijon 40%
Draw 25%
RED Star FC 93 34%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Dijon wins
40%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
98%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
74%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
8% of simulated outcomes

Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Dijon vs RED Star FC 93

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDijonDrawRED Star FC 93
Model52.1%21.0%26.9%
Market36.4%26.5%37.0%
Final40.3%25.2%34.5%
Edge+3.9%-1.4%-2.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Dijon

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 1.69.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Dijon below our published probability: +3.9 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +8.9% per unit staked (our 40.3% × 2.70 − 1).

Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 match preview

Dijon enters this match with a probability of 44% to win against RED Star FC 93, who have a 33% chance of victory according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Dijon, with an 8% likelihood. Both teams are expected to score, with a 73% probability for both teams to find the net, and there is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.

In terms of recent form, Dijon has recorded three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while RED Star FC 93 has achieved four wins and two losses in the same period. The expected goals for Dijon stand at 2.05, while RED Star FC 93 is projected at 1.76. The confidence grade for this match is C.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Dijon ↓ / RED Star FC 93 → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 6% 2 5% 8% 7% 3 6% 5% 4+ 7% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 92%
3+ goals 77%
No goals 2%

Dijon and RED Star FC 93 expected goals

Dijon 2.35
RED Star FC 93 1.69

Total expected goals: 4.04

Dijon and RED Star FC 93 attack and defence ratings

Dijon

Attack 1.43 +43%
Defence 1.25 +25%

RED Star FC 93

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 1.24 +24%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Ligue 2

Before and after this match

Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Dijon 40.3% 2.48 +3.9% 2.70
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 76.8% 1.30 — —
Both teams to score Yes 74.5% 1.34 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.8% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.9% 2.09 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Dijon40.3%
Draw25.2%
RED Star FC 9334.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576.8%
Under 2.523.2%
Both teams to scoreYes74.5%
No25.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)65.5%
12 (either side)74.8%
X2 (draw or away)59.7%
Handicap -1Dijon win32.8%
Push (exactly one goal)19.3%
Loss47.9%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.2%
1-17.7%
2-26.9%
Compare prices for this pick

Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 stats

Dijon and RED Star FC 93 recent form

newest first
Dijon WLLWWW
RED Star FC 93 LLLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Dijon and RED Star FC 93 season so far

league record

Dijon record

  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

RED Star FC 93 record

  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Dijon vs RED Star FC 93 odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.4%, draw 26.5%, away 37.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.53 3.55 2.51
Bet365 2.55 3.20 2.45
BetVictor 2.50 3.50 2.45
Betano 2.70 3.50 2.55
Betfair 2.55 3.50 2.50
Dafabet 2.70 3.45 2.55
Marathonbet 2.53 3.55 2.51
Pinnacle 2.58 3.56 2.60
William Hill 2.50 3.30 2.50
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.55 ▼ -0.08
X 3.50 ▲ +0.10
2 2.51 ▼ -0.07

4 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Dijon Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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