Nancy
vs
Sochaux
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nancy
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 0.93.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Nancy is the favourite, not a value bet.
Nancy vs Sochaux overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nancy vs Sochaux
| Probability | Nancy | Draw | Sochaux |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.7% | 23.7% | 16.6% |
| Market | 54.8% | 25.9% | 19.4% |
| Final | 56.0% | 25.3% | 18.7% |
| Edge | +1.2% | -0.5% | -0.7% |
Why Nancy
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.3% per unit staked (our 56.0% × 1.78 − 1).
Nancy vs Sochaux match preview
Nancy enters this match with a strong recent form, having won four of their last five games, while Sochaux struggles with three consecutive losses, followed by a draw and a win. According to our model, Nancy has a 56% probability of winning, with the most likely scoreline being 2-0, which occurs at an 11% likelihood.
In terms of expected goals, Nancy is projected to score 1.94, while Sochaux is forecasted to net 0.93. The model suggests a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% probability that both teams will score. With these statistics in mind, Nancy appears to have the upper hand heading into the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nancy and Sochaux expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.87
Nancy and Sochaux attack and defence ratings
Nancy
Sochaux
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nancy vs Sochaux markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nancy | 56.0% | 1.79 | +1.2% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.3% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.3% | 2.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nancy | 56.0% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Sochaux | 18.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.0% |
| No | 47.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nancy win | 36.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 40.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-0 | 10.6% | |
| 1-0 | 10.0% |
Nancy vs Sochaux stats
Nancy and Sochaux recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nancy and Sochaux season so far
Nancy record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Sochaux record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Nancy vs Sochaux head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Nancy vs Sochaux odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.8%, draw 25.9%, away 19.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.68 | 3.68 | 4.94 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.30 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.77 | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.66 | 3.68 | 5.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | 3.71 | 5.33 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.40 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .