Dunkerque
vs
Guingamp
Garuda Lions Prediction: Guingamp
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Guingamp is the favourite, not a value bet.
Dunkerque vs Guingamp overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dunkerque vs Guingamp
| Probability | Dunkerque | Draw | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.6% | 27.2% | 42.2% |
| Market | 34.2% | 26.6% | 39.1% |
| Final | 33.3% | 26.8% | 39.9% |
| Edge | -0.9% | +0.1% | +0.8% |
Why Guingamp
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.52, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.5% per unit staked (our 39.9% × 2.52 − 1).
Dunkerque vs Guingamp match preview
Dunkerque faces Guingamp in a Ligue 2 clash with both teams showing mixed recent form. Dunkerque has recorded a sequence of results including one win in their last five matches, while Guingamp has managed to secure three victories in their last six outings. The model predicts a close contest, with Dunkerque holding a 31% chance of winning compared to Guingamp's 42%, and a draw at 27%.
The expected goals suggest a slight edge for Guingamp, with 1.55 compared to Dunkerque's 1.30. The most likely scoreline is projected at 1-2, occurring 9% of the time, and there is a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored, alongside a 58% chance that both teams will find the net.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dunkerque and Guingamp expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.84
Dunkerque and Guingamp attack and defence ratings
Dunkerque
Guingamp
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Dunkerque vs Guingamp markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guingamp | 39.9% | 2.51 | +0.8% | 2.52 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.3% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dunkerque | 33.3% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Guingamp | 39.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.3% |
| No | 41.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Guingamp win | 21.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 57.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | |
| 0-1 | 7.9% |
Dunkerque vs Guingamp stats
Dunkerque and Guingamp recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dunkerque and Guingamp season so far
Dunkerque record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Guingamp record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Dunkerque vs Guingamp head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | Dunkerque | Guingamp | Ligue 2 | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-23 | Guingamp | Dunkerque | Ligue 2 | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Dunkerque vs Guingamp odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.2%, draw 26.6%, away 39.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.72 | 3.52 | 2.36 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.38 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.72 | 3.50 | 2.52 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.55 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.72 | 3.52 | 2.36 |
| Pinnacle | 2.84 | 3.54 | 2.39 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.38 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .