Guingamp
vs
Saint-Etienne
Garuda Lions Prediction: Saint-Etienne
0 – 2 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 0.93.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Guingamp vs Saint-Etienne overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Guingamp vs Saint-Etienne
| Probability | Guingamp | Draw | Saint-Etienne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.1% | 24.1% | 58.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 17.1% | 24.1% | 58.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Saint-Etienne
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Guingamp vs Saint-Etienne match preview
Guingamp faces Saint-Etienne in a Ligue 2 matchup on October 31, 2026. According to our model, Saint-Etienne has a 59% probability of winning, while Guingamp stands at 17%. The expected goals suggest a significant advantage for Saint-Etienne, with 1.89 compared to Guingamp's 0.93. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-2, occurring at an 11% likelihood, and there is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
In terms of recent form, Guingamp has recorded one win in their last six matches, while Saint-Etienne has been more successful, winning four of their last six encounters. The head-to-head record from the last two matches shows one win for each team. Overall, the confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating moderate certainty in the analysis.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Guingamp and Saint-Etienne expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.83
Guingamp and Saint-Etienne attack and defence ratings
Guingamp
Saint-Etienne
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Guingamp vs Saint-Etienne markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Saint-Etienne | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 82.9% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.2% | 2.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guingamp | 17.1% |
| Draw | 24.1% | |
| Saint-Etienne | 58.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.6% |
| No | 47.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 41.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Saint-Etienne win | 35.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 41.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 0-2 | 10.6% | |
| 0-1 | 10.1% |
Guingamp vs Saint-Etienne stats
Guingamp and Saint-Etienne recent form
| Guingamp |
WLLLWD |
| Saint-Etienne |
WWWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Guingamp and Saint-Etienne season so far
Guingamp record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Saint-Etienne record
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Guingamp vs Saint-Etienne head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Guingamp | Saint-Etienne | Ligue 2 | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-27 | Saint-Etienne | Guingamp | Ligue 2 | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.