Metz
vs
PAU
Garuda Lions Prediction: Metz
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Metz is the favourite, not a value bet.
Metz vs PAU overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Metz vs PAU
| Probability | Metz | Draw | PAU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.9% | 24.4% | 40.7% |
| Market | 46.7% | 26.7% | 26.7% |
| Final | 43.7% | 26.1% | 30.2% |
| Edge | -2.9% | -0.6% | +3.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.9% per unit staked (our 43.7% × 2.06 − 1).
Metz vs PAU match preview
Metz will host PAU in an intriguing Ligue 2 matchup on October 30, 2026. According to our model, Metz has a 44% probability of winning, while PAU stands at 30%, with a draw at 26%. The expected goals for Metz is 1.64, compared to PAU's 1.78, indicating a competitive contest. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Metz, occurring with an 8% probability.
Both teams come into this match with contrasting recent forms. Metz has recorded a draw, a win, two losses, and another draw in their last five matches, while PAU has been in better shape with four wins and a draw in the same period. Our model suggests a high likelihood of goals, with a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Metz and PAU expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.43
Metz and PAU attack and defence ratings
Metz
PAU
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Metz vs PAU markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Metz | 43.7% | 2.29 | -2.9% | 2.06 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Metz | 43.7% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| PAU | 30.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.1% |
| No | 31.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Metz win | 17.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.1% | |
| Loss | 65.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | |
| 2-1 | 7.8% |
Metz vs PAU stats
Metz and PAU recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Metz and PAU season so far
Metz record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
PAU record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Metz vs PAU head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Metz vs PAU odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.7%, draw 26.7%, away 26.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.99 | 3.58 | 3.48 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.65 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.97 | 3.58 | 3.48 |
| Pinnacle | 2.06 | 3.45 | 3.58 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .