Dunkerque
vs
Metz
Garuda Lions Prediction: Dunkerque
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Dunkerque vs Metz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dunkerque vs Metz
| Probability | Dunkerque | Draw | Metz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.7% | 23.0% | 36.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 40.7% | 23.0% | 36.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Dunkerque vs Metz match preview
Dunkerque faces Metz in an upcoming Ligue 2 match, with kickoff scheduled for October 23, 2026. According to our model, Dunkerque has a 37% chance of winning, while Metz stands at 38%, and the probability of a draw is 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at an 8% likelihood. Both teams are expected to score, with a 66% probability, and there is a 64% chance that the match will see over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Dunkerque has recorded two losses, one win, one draw, and two more losses, while Metz has experienced one loss, two draws, one win, and two draws in their last six matches. The expected goals for Dunkerque are 1.65, compared to Metz's 1.66, indicating a closely contested match. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dunkerque and Metz expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.76
Dunkerque and Metz attack and defence ratings
Dunkerque
Metz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Dunkerque vs Metz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dunkerque | 40.7% | 2.46 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dunkerque | 40.7% |
| Draw | 23.0% | |
| Metz | 36.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.6% |
| No | 27.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dunkerque win | 22.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.0% | |
| Loss | 59.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.0% |
| 2-1 | 8.0% | |
| 1-2 | 7.5% |
Dunkerque vs Metz stats
Dunkerque and Metz recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dunkerque and Metz season so far
Dunkerque record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Metz record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.