PAU
vs
Grenoble
Garuda Lions Prediction: PAU
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
PAU vs Grenoble overview
Garuda Lions analysis: PAU vs Grenoble
| Probability | PAU | Draw | Grenoble |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.7% | 27.7% | 24.6% |
| Market | 52.2% | 26.7% | 21.1% |
| Final | 51.1% | 26.9% | 22.0% |
| Edge | -4.5% | +1.0% | +3.4% |
Why PAU
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
PAU vs Grenoble match preview
In the upcoming Ligue 2 match between PAU and Grenoble, PAU holds a 51% probability of winning, while Grenoble has a 22% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of PAU, with an expected goals tally of 1.57 for PAU and 1.06 for Grenoble. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with PAU recording three wins followed by a loss, a draw, and another draw, while Grenoble has two losses, a draw, a win, and a loss in their last five matches.
Historically, the head-to-head record between these teams shows that PAU has not secured a win against Grenoble, with two draws in their last encounters. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 49%, and there is a 53% chance that both teams will score in this match, reflecting a potentially competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
PAU and Grenoble expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.62
PAU and Grenoble attack and defence ratings
PAU
Grenoble
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
PAU vs Grenoble markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PAU | 51.1% | 1.96 | -4.5% | 1.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PAU | 51.1% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Grenoble | 22.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.8% |
| No | 47.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | PAU win | 25.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 52.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | |
| 2-1 | 9.4% |
PAU vs Grenoble stats
PAU and Grenoble recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
PAU and Grenoble season so far
PAU record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Grenoble record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
PAU vs Grenoble head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | PAU | Grenoble | Ligue 2 | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-17 | Grenoble | PAU | Ligue 2 | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
PAU vs Grenoble odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.2%, draw 26.7%, away 21.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marathonbet | 1.78 | 3.58 | 4.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.80 | 3.48 | 4.61 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .