PAU
vs
Nantes
Garuda Lions Prediction: PAU
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.11.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
PAU vs Nantes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: PAU vs Nantes
| Probability | PAU | Draw | Nantes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.5% | 25.6% | 22.8% |
| Market | 31.4% | 27.9% | 40.7% |
| Final | 36.5% | 27.3% | 36.2% |
| Edge | +5.0% | -0.6% | -4.5% |
Why PAU
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices PAU below our published probability: +5.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 3.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +11.2% per unit staked (our 36.5% × 3.05 − 1).
PAU vs Nantes match preview
In the upcoming Ligue 2 match between PAU and Nantes, both teams have shown contrasting recent form. PAU has won four of its last five matches, while Nantes has struggled, managing only one win in their last five games, with two draws and two losses. According to our model, the probabilities for the match outcome are evenly split between PAU and Nantes at 36%, with a 27% chance of a draw.
The expected goals suggest PAU may have the upper hand, with an expected total of 1.77 compared to Nantes' 1.11. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of PAU, occurring with a 10% probability. Additionally, there is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
PAU and Nantes expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.88
PAU and Nantes attack and defence ratings
PAU
Nantes
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
PAU vs Nantes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PAU | 36.5% | 2.74 | +5.0% | 3.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PAU | 36.5% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Nantes | 36.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% |
| No | 43.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | PAU win | 29.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 48.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-0 | 8.8% |
PAU vs Nantes stats
PAU and Nantes recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
PAU and Nantes season so far
PAU record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Nantes record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
PAU vs Nantes head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
PAU vs Nantes odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.4%, draw 27.9%, away 40.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.98 | 3.35 | 2.29 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.40 | 2.32 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 3.05 | 3.40 | 2.33 |
| Marathonbet | 2.97 | 3.35 | 2.27 |
| Pinnacle | 2.98 | 3.35 | 2.39 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .