Lourdes
vs
PAU
Garuda Lions Prediction: PAU
0 – 2 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 0.90.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Lourdes vs PAU overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lourdes vs PAU
| Probability | Lourdes | Draw | PAU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12.8% | 20.3% | 66.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 12.8% | 20.3% | 66.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why PAU
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Lourdes vs PAU match preview
Lourdes faces PAU in the Coupe de France with a significant disparity in expectations. According to our model, Lourdes has a 13% chance of winning, while PAU is favored at 67%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2 in favor of PAU, which aligns with their expected goals of 2.24 compared to Lourdes' 0.90.
In terms of recent form, Lourdes has struggled with two consecutive losses, while PAU has been more successful, winning four of their last five matches. The probabilities suggest a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance that both teams will score, indicating a potentially high-scoring match with PAU likely to dominate.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lourdes and PAU expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.14
Lourdes and PAU attack and defence ratings
Lourdes
PAU
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Lourdes vs PAU markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PAU | 66.9% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.2% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | PAU win | 44.4% | 2.25 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lourdes | 12.8% |
| Draw | 20.3% | |
| PAU | 66.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% |
| No | 46.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 33.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | PAU win | 44.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 33.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 10.9% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 1-1 | 9.6% |
Lourdes vs PAU stats
Lourdes and PAU recent form
| Lourdes |
LL |
| PAU |
WWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.