Castelbourgeois
vs
Nantes
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nantes
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 1.12.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Castelbourgeois vs Nantes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Castelbourgeois vs Nantes
| Probability | Castelbourgeois | Draw | Nantes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.4% | 28.9% | 42.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 28.4% | 28.9% | 42.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Nantes
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 1.12.
Castelbourgeois vs Nantes match preview
In the upcoming Coupe de France match, Castelbourgeois faces Nantes with probabilities indicating a competitive encounter. Our model assigns a 28% chance for Castelbourgeois to win, a 29% chance for a draw, and a 43% likelihood of Nantes securing victory. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 10%.
Expected goals suggest Castelbourgeois may score 1.12 while Nantes is projected to net 1.42. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 47%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 52%. Nantes enters the match with a recent form of D-L-L-D-W-L, while Castelbourgeois's recent performance data is not available. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Castelbourgeois and Nantes expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.54
Castelbourgeois and Nantes attack and defence ratings
Castelbourgeois
Nantes
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Castelbourgeois vs Nantes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nantes | 42.7% | 2.34 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.3% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Castelbourgeois | 28.4% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Nantes | 42.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% |
| No | 47.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nantes win | 21.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 57.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 0-1 | 10.0% | |
| 0-0 | 9.2% |
Castelbourgeois vs Nantes stats
Castelbourgeois and Nantes recent form
| Castelbourgeois | no matches on record |
| Nantes |
DLLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.