Montpellier
vs
Metz
Garuda Lions Prediction: Montpellier
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 0.83.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Montpellier vs Metz overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Montpellier vs Metz
| Probability | Montpellier | Draw | Metz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.6% | 21.0% | 12.4% |
| Market | 47.4% | 27.6% | 25.1% |
| Final | 52.2% | 25.9% | 21.9% |
| Edge | +4.8% | -1.7% | -3.2% |
Why Montpellier
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Montpellier below our published probability: +4.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.0% per unit staked (our 52.2% × 2.05 − 1).
Montpellier vs Metz match preview
Montpellier enters the match against Metz with a strong probability of winning at 60%, while Metz holds a 16% chance of victory. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-0 in favor of Montpellier, with an expected goals tally of 1.91 for Montpellier compared to 0.88 for Metz. Recent form shows Montpellier has secured three wins and a draw in their last five matches, while Metz has struggled with one win and four matches without a victory.
The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match stands at 53%, and both teams scoring is projected at 51%. Historically, Montpellier has dominated their recent encounters with Metz, winning all three of their last meetings without conceding. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Montpellier and Metz expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.97
Montpellier and Metz attack and defence ratings
Montpellier
Metz
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Montpellier vs Metz markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Montpellier | 52.2% | 1.92 | +4.8% | 2.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Montpellier win | 43.5% | 2.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Montpellier | 52.2% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Metz | 21.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.7% |
| No | 49.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Montpellier win | 43.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 33.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.7% |
| 1-0 | 10.0% | |
| 1-1 | 10.0% |
Montpellier vs Metz stats
Montpellier and Metz recent form
| Montpellier |
WWWWDW |
| Metz |
LDWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Montpellier and Metz season so far
Montpellier record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Metz record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Montpellier vs Metz head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Metz | Montpellier | Coupe de France | 0-4 |
| 2024-02-18 | Montpellier | Metz | Ligue 1 | 3-0 |
| 2023-12-17 | Metz | Montpellier | Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Montpellier vs Metz odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.4%, draw 27.6%, away 25.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.03 | 3.22 | 3.74 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.50 | 3.85 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| Dafabet | 1.97 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.01 | 3.22 | 3.74 |
| Pinnacle | 2.05 | 3.16 | 4.01 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .