Choisy au Bac
vs
Caen
Garuda Lions Prediction: Caen
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.75 vs 1.17.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Choisy au Bac vs Caen overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Choisy au Bac vs Caen
| Probability | Choisy au Bac | Draw | Caen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13.0% | 17.0% | 70.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 13.0% | 17.0% | 70.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Caen
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.75 vs 1.17.
Choisy au Bac vs Caen match preview
In the upcoming Coupe de France match, Choisy au Bac faces Caen, with our model assigning a 13% probability of a Choisy au Bac victory, a 17% chance of a draw, and a strong 70% likelihood of a Caen win. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2, with a 9% probability.
The expected goals for Choisy au Bac stand at 1.17, while Caen is forecasted to achieve 2.75. Additionally, there is a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored, and both teams are expected to score with a 65% chance. Caen's recent form shows two losses followed by two wins, indicating a potential resurgence as they approach this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Choisy au Bac and Caen expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.92
Choisy au Bac and Caen attack and defence ratings
Choisy au Bac
Caen
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Boulay v Sochaux — match page
- Rhone-Crussol v Fréjus St-Raphaël — match page
- Vendée Fontenay vs Clermont Foot
- Chalon v Hauts Lyonnais — match page
- Croix Football IC vs Thaon
- Le Poiré sur Vie vs USSA Vertou — team news & stats
- Cheruy vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 — team news & stats
- St Sebastien vs La Baule-Le Pouliguen
Choisy au Bac vs Caen markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Caen | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.0% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Caen win | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Choisy au Bac | 13.0% |
| Draw | 17.0% | |
| Caen | 70.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% |
| No | 34.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 29.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Caen win | 50.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 29.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.8% |
| 1-3 | 8.1% | |
| 0-2 | 7.5% |
Choisy au Bac vs Caen stats
Choisy au Bac and Caen recent form
| Choisy au Bac | no matches on record |
| Caen |
LLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.