Croix Football IC
vs
Thaon
Garuda Lions Prediction: Thaon
0 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.89 vs 0.90.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Croix Football IC vs Thaon overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Croix Football IC vs Thaon
| Probability | Croix Football IC | Draw | Thaon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 8.2% | 14.5% | 77.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 8.2% | 14.5% | 77.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Thaon
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.89 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 4 vs 1 for the opposition.
Croix Football IC vs Thaon match preview
Croix Football IC faces Thaon in the Coupe de France with a challenging matchup ahead. According to our model, Croix Football IC has an 8% probability of winning, while Thaon is favored at 77%. The expected goals for Croix Football IC stand at 0.90, in stark contrast to Thaon's 2.89, indicating a significant disparity in offensive output.
Recent form further highlights the challenges for Croix Football IC, who have recorded one win, one draw, and one loss in their last three matches. In comparison, Thaon is on a strong run, with three consecutive wins following a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-2, with a 9% probability, and there is a 73% chance of more than 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Croix Football IC and Thaon expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.79
Croix Football IC and Thaon attack and defence ratings
Croix Football IC
Thaon
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
Croix Football IC vs Thaon markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Thaon | 77.3% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 91.8% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Thaon win | 58.3% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Croix Football IC | 8.2% |
| Draw | 14.5% | |
| Thaon | 77.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.7% |
| No | 43.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 22.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 91.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Thaon win | 58.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 22.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 9.4% |
| 0-3 | 9.1% | |
| 1-2 | 8.5% |
Croix Football IC vs Thaon stats
Croix Football IC and Thaon recent form
| Croix Football IC |
LWD |
| Thaon |
DWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.