Saint-Pauloise
vs
La Tamponnaise
Garuda Lions Prediction: La Tamponnaise
0 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.50 vs 0.97.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Saint-Pauloise vs La Tamponnaise overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Saint-Pauloise vs La Tamponnaise
| Probability | Saint-Pauloise | Draw | La Tamponnaise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 11.9% | 18.2% | 69.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 11.9% | 18.2% | 69.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why La Tamponnaise
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.50 vs 0.97.
Saint-Pauloise vs La Tamponnaise match preview
In the upcoming Coupe de France match, Saint-Pauloise faces La Tamponnaise, with the model predicting a significant advantage for the visitors. La Tamponnaise holds a 69% probability of winning, while Saint-Pauloise has only a 12% chance. The expected goals for Saint-Pauloise stand at 0.98, compared to La Tamponnaise's 2.48, indicating a potential scoring disparity.
The most likely scoreline forecasted by the model is 0-2, with a 10% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and both teams are given a 58% probability of scoring at least once. The recent form shows Saint-Pauloise with a loss followed by a win, while La Tamponnaise's recent performance is not available.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Saint-Pauloise and La Tamponnaise expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.47
Saint-Pauloise and La Tamponnaise attack and defence ratings
Saint-Pauloise
La Tamponnaise
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
Saint-Pauloise vs La Tamponnaise markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | La Tamponnaise | 69.9% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.3% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 88.1% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | La Tamponnaise win | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Saint-Pauloise | 11.9% |
| Draw | 18.2% | |
| La Tamponnaise | 69.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% |
| No | 42.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 30.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 88.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | La Tamponnaise win | 48.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 30.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 9.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.4% | |
| 1-1 | 8.3% |
Saint-Pauloise vs La Tamponnaise stats
Saint-Pauloise and La Tamponnaise recent form
| Saint-Pauloise |
LW |
| La Tamponnaise |
no matches on record |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.