Stade Pontivy
vs
Stade Plabennec
Garuda Lions Prediction: Stade Plabennec
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.11.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Stade Pontivy vs Stade Plabennec overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stade Pontivy vs Stade Plabennec
| Probability | Stade Pontivy | Draw | Stade Plabennec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.1% | 24.5% | 54.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 21.1% | 24.5% | 54.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Stade Plabennec
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.11.
Stade Pontivy vs Stade Plabennec match preview
In the upcoming Coupe de France match, Stade Pontivy faces Stade Plabennec with Stade Plabennec holding a notable advantage according to our model, which assigns them a 54% probability of winning compared to Stade Pontivy's 21%. The predicted scoreline suggests a close contest, with a 1-2 outcome being the most likely at 10%. Both teams are expected to score, with a 58% probability for each side finding the back of the net.
The expected goals metrics further highlight the disparity, with Stade Pontivy projected to score 1.11 goals and Stade Plabennec at 1.89. The recent form shows Stade Plabennec coming off a win and a loss, while Stade Pontivy's recent performances are not available. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stade Pontivy and Stade Plabennec expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.00
Stade Pontivy and Stade Plabennec attack and defence ratings
Stade Pontivy
Stade Plabennec
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
Stade Pontivy vs Stade Plabennec markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stade Plabennec | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.5% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stade Pontivy | 21.1% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Stade Plabennec | 54.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.0% |
| No | 42.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 45.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stade Plabennec win | 32.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 45.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 8.9% |
Stade Pontivy vs Stade Plabennec stats
Stade Pontivy and Stade Plabennec recent form
| Stade Pontivy | no matches on record |
| Stade Plabennec |
LW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.