Tefana
vs
Thionville Lusitanos
Garuda Lions Prediction: Thionville Lusitanos
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.27.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Tefana vs Thionville Lusitanos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tefana vs Thionville Lusitanos
| Probability | Tefana | Draw | Thionville Lusitanos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.6% | 23.9% | 52.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 23.6% | 23.9% | 52.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Thionville Lusitanos
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.27.
Tefana vs Thionville Lusitanos match preview
In the upcoming Coupe de France match, Tefana faces Thionville Lusitanos with kickoff scheduled for November 14, 2026. According to our model, Thionville Lusitanos holds a 52% probability of winning, while both Tefana and a draw are each at 24%. The expected goals for Tefana is 1.27, compared to Thionville Lusitanos' 1.95, suggesting a potential advantage for the latter.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 10%. Additionally, there is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams scoring has a probability of 63%. Thionville Lusitanos has shown recent form with one loss, one draw, and two wins, while Tefana's recent form remains unavailable.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tefana and Thionville Lusitanos expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.22
Tefana and Thionville Lusitanos attack and defence ratings
Tefana
Thionville Lusitanos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
Tefana vs Thionville Lusitanos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Thionville Lusitanos | 52.5% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.5% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tefana | 23.6% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| Thionville Lusitanos | 52.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.6% |
| No | 37.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Thionville Lusitanos win | 31.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 47.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 7.6% |
Tefana vs Thionville Lusitanos stats
Tefana and Thionville Lusitanos recent form
| Tefana | no matches on record |
| Thionville Lusitanos |
LDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.