Gareji
vs
Kolkheti Poti
3 – 2 Full time
Gareji vs Kolkheti Poti overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gareji vs Kolkheti Poti
| Probability | Gareji | Draw | Kolkheti Poti |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.3% | 32.7% | 21.0% |
| Market | 33.6% | 28.7% | 37.7% |
| Final | 36.8% | 29.7% | 33.5% |
| Edge | +12.7% | +4.0% | -16.7% |
Why Gareji
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.21 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Gareji below the model: +12.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gareji and Kolkheti Poti expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.94
Gareji and Kolkheti Poti attack and defence ratings
Gareji
Kolkheti Poti
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Gareji vs Kolkheti Poti: result vs prediction
Gareji 3 – 2 Kolkheti Poti
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 22 fixtures
Before and after this match
Gareji vs Kolkheti Poti markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gareji | 36.8% | 2.72 | +12.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.3% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gareji | 36.8% |
| Draw | 29.7% | |
| Kolkheti Poti | 33.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.5% |
| No | 62.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gareji win | 21.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.0% | |
| Loss | 53.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.2% |
| 0-0 | 15.7% | |
| 1-1 | 14.0% |
Gareji vs Kolkheti Poti stats
Gareji and Kolkheti Poti recent form
| Gareji |
LDLDWW |
| Kolkheti Poti |
DLDDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Gareji and Kolkheti Poti going into this match
Gareji record
- They have won 13 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kolkheti Poti record
- They have won 5 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gareji vs Kolkheti Poti head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Kolkheti Poti | Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Gareji | Kolkheti Poti | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Gareji vs Kolkheti Poti odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.6%, draw 28.7%, away 37.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.28 | 3.02 | 3.02 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.77 | 3.10 | 2.32 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 3.75 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.36 |
| Marathonbet | 2.79 | 3.18 | 2.27 |
| Pinnacle | 2.65 | 3.11 | 2.22 |
| Superbet | 2.82 | 3.10 | 2.32 |