Erovnuli Liga 2
·
Full time
·Matchday 23
Merani Martvili
vs
Gareji
1 – 2 Full time
Merani Martvili
30%
Draw
35%
Gareji
35%
Merani Martvili vs Gareji overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Merani Martvili vs Gareji
| Probability | Merani Martvili | Draw | Gareji |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.2% | 35.1% | 34.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 30.2% | 35.1% | 34.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
83%
2+ goals
56%
3+ goals
28%
No goals
17%
Merani Martvili and Gareji expected goals
Merani Martvili
0.88
Gareji
0.96
Total expected goals: 1.84
Merani Martvili and Gareji attack and defence ratings
Merani Martvili
Attack
0.72 -28%
Defence
0.84 -16%
Gareji
Attack
1.05 +5%
Defence
0.89 -11%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Merani Martvili vs Gareji: result vs prediction
Merani Martvili 1 – 2 Gareji
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 23 fixtures
Before and after this match
Merani Martvili vs Gareji markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Draw | 35.1% | 2.85 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Merani Martvili | 30.2% |
| Draw | 35.1% | |
| Gareji | 34.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.5% |
| No | 62.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 64.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gareji win | 13.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 65.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 17.2% |
| 1-1 | 14.8% | |
| 0-1 | 13.9% |
Merani Martvili vs Gareji stats
Merani Martvili and Gareji recent form
| Merani Martvili |
LDLLWL |
| Gareji |
WLDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Merani Martvili and Gareji going into this match
Merani Martvili record
- They have won 8 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gareji record
- They have won 13 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Merani Martvili vs Gareji head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
1Merani Martvili wins
0Draws
1Gareji wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Gareji | Merani Martvili | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 1-0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Merani Martvili | Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.