DFB Pokal
·
Full time
·Round of 64
Rot-Weiß Essen
vs
St. Pauli
2 – 0 Full time
Rot-Weiß Essen
27%
Draw
25%
St. Pauli
48%
Rot-Weiß Essen vs St. Pauli overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rot-Weiß Essen vs St. Pauli
| Probability | Rot-Weiß Essen | Draw | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.0% | 22.0% | 59.0% |
| Market | 30.0% | 25.4% | 44.6% |
| Final | 27.2% | 24.6% | 48.2% |
| Edge | -11.0% | -3.5% | +14.5% |
Why St. Pauli
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.11.
- The market prices St. Pauli below the model: +14.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
84%
3+ goals
63%
No goals
5%
Rot-Weiß Essen and St. Pauli expected goals
Rot-Weiß Essen
1.11
St. Pauli
2.14
Total expected goals: 3.25
Rot-Weiß Essen and St. Pauli attack and defence ratings
Rot-Weiß Essen
Attack
0.98 -2%
Defence
1.09 +9%
St. Pauli
Attack
0.76 -24%
Defence
1.19 +19%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Rot-Weiß Essen vs St. Pauli: result vs prediction
Rot-Weiß Essen 2 – 0 St. Pauli
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
- Preußen Münster v Karlsruher SC — match page
- Waldhof Mannheim vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern — team news & stats
- SC St. Tönis vs Eintracht Frankfurt
- Hansa Rostock v VfB Stuttgart — match page
- SV Wehen vs Bayer Leverkusen — team news & stats
- Energie Cottbus vs Augsburg
- MSV Duisburg v SV Elversberg — match page
- Erzgebirge Aue vs Hoffenheim — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Rot-Weiß Essen vs St. Pauli markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St. Pauli | 48.2% | 2.08 | +14.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.8% | 2.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 27.2% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| St. Pauli | 48.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.2% |
| No | 37.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | St. Pauli win | 38.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 39.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 0-2 | 8.3% |
Rot-Weiß Essen vs St. Pauli stats
Rot-Weiß Essen and St. Pauli recent form
| Rot-Weiß Essen |
WLLWWW |
| St. Pauli |
DDLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rot-Weiß Essen vs St. Pauli head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Rot-Weiß Essen vs St. Pauli odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.0%, draw 25.4%, away 44.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.12 | 3.68 | 2.10 |
| 888Sport | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.70 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.65 | 2.12 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.90 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.25 | 3.80 | 2.13 |
| Marathonbet | 3.12 | 3.68 | 2.08 |
| Pinnacle | 3.16 | 3.83 | 2.11 |
| SBO | 2.78 | 3.22 | 2.08 |
| Superbet | 3.15 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| Unibet | 3.15 | 3.80 | 2.10 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.10 |