Hearts of Oak
vs
Basake Holy Stars
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hearts of Oak
1 – 0 Predicted score · 23% model probability
Hearts of Oak vs Basake Holy Stars overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hearts of Oak vs Basake Holy Stars
| Probability | Hearts of Oak | Draw | Basake Holy Stars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.7% | 23.7% | 5.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 70.7% | 23.7% | 5.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Hearts of Oak
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.30.
Hearts of Oak vs Basake Holy Stars match preview
Hearts of Oak enters the match against Basake Holy Stars with a strong probability of winning at 71%, reflecting their recent form of two wins, two draws, and one loss. The expected goals for Hearts of Oak stand at 1.64, while Basake Holy Stars is projected to score only 0.30. The most likely scoreline according to our model is 1-0, with a probability of 23%.
In their recent performances, Basake Holy Stars has struggled, recording one win in their last six matches. The head-to-head record favors Hearts of Oak, who have won once and drawn once in their last two encounters with Basake Holy Stars. The probabilities indicate a low chance of over 2.5 goals at 31% and both teams scoring at 21%, suggesting a potentially tight contest.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hearts of Oak and Basake Holy Stars expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.94
Hearts of Oak and Basake Holy Stars attack and defence ratings
Hearts of Oak
Basake Holy Stars
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Hearts of Oak vs Basake Holy Stars markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hearts of Oak | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.5% | 1.06 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Hearts of Oak win | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hearts of Oak | 70.7% |
| Draw | 23.7% | |
| Basake Holy Stars | 5.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 21.4% |
| No | 78.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 29.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hearts of Oak win | 41.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 29.2% | |
| Loss | 29.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 22.9% |
| 2-0 | 19.4% | |
| 0-0 | 15.1% |
Hearts of Oak vs Basake Holy Stars stats
Hearts of Oak and Basake Holy Stars recent form
| Hearts of Oak |
WDLDWW |
| Basake Holy Stars |
LWLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hearts of Oak and Basake Holy Stars season so far
Hearts of Oak record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Basake Holy Stars record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Hearts of Oak vs Basake Holy Stars head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Hearts of Oak | Basake Holy Stars | Ghana Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Basake Holy Stars | Hearts of Oak | Ghana Premier League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.