Port City
vs
Basake Holy Stars
Garuda Lions Prediction: Port City
1 – 0 Predicted score · 21% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 0.37.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Port City vs Basake Holy Stars overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Port City vs Basake Holy Stars
| Probability | Port City | Draw | Basake Holy Stars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.0% | 24.0% | 6.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 69.0% | 24.0% | 6.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Port City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 0.37.
Port City vs Basake Holy Stars match preview
Port City enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 69%, while Basake Holy Stars has a mere 7% chance of securing a victory. The expected goals for Port City stand at 1.67, significantly higher than Basake Holy Stars' 0.37, indicating a potential dominance in offensive play. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 21%.
Recent form shows Port City with mixed results, recording two draws, a win, and two losses in their last five matches. In contrast, Basake Holy Stars has struggled, losing four of their last six games. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 33%, while both teams scoring is projected at 26%, suggesting a low-scoring affair is more probable.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Port City and Basake Holy Stars expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.04
Port City and Basake Holy Stars attack and defence ratings
Port City
Basake Holy Stars
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Port City vs Basake Holy Stars markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Port City | 69.0% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.6% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.1% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Port City win | 40.7% | 2.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Port City | 69.0% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Basake Holy Stars | 6.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 26.0% |
| No | 74.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 31.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Port City win | 40.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28.3% | |
| Loss | 31.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 20.9% |
| 2-0 | 18.1% | |
| 0-0 | 13.8% |
Port City vs Basake Holy Stars stats
Port City and Basake Holy Stars recent form
| Port City |
DWDLWL |
| Basake Holy Stars |
LLWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Port City and Basake Holy Stars season so far
Port City record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Basake Holy Stars record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.