Municipal
vs
Xelajú
2 – 0 Full time
Municipal vs Xelajú overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Municipal vs Xelajú
| Probability | Municipal | Draw | Xelajú |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 82.3% | 13.1% | 4.6% |
| Market | 63.9% | 22.3% | 13.8% |
| Final | 68.5% | 20.0% | 11.5% |
| Edge | +18.4% | -9.2% | -9.2% |
Why Municipal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 0.54.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Municipal below the model: +18.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Municipal and Xelajú expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.25
Municipal and Xelajú attack and defence ratings
Municipal
Xelajú
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Municipal vs Xelajú: result vs prediction
Municipal 2 – 0 Xelajú
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Municipal vs Xelajú markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Municipal | 68.5% | 1.46 | +18.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.5% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Municipal win | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Municipal | 68.5% |
| Draw | 20.0% | |
| Xelajú | 11.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.7% |
| No | 60.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 31.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Municipal win | 62.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 17.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 14.2% |
| 3-0 | 12.8% | |
| 1-0 | 9.9% |
Municipal vs Xelajú stats
Municipal and Xelajú recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Municipal and Xelajú going into this match
Municipal record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Xelajú record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
Municipal vs Xelajú head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Xelajú | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-2 |
| 2026-05-17 | Municipal | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 4-1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Xelajú | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 3-1 |
| 2026-01-29 | Municipal | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Municipal | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Municipal vs Xelajú odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.1%, draw 22.4%, away 13.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.40 | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.39 | 4.10 | 7.21 |
| 888Sport | 1.44 | 3.80 | 6.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.38 | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.45 | 4.00 | 6.50 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.44 | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.38 | 4.10 | 6.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.43 | 4.19 | 6.49 |
| Superbet | 1.43 | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| Unibet | 1.45 | 3.75 | 6.00 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 3.80 | 6.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .