Aurora
vs
Suchitepéquez
3 – 2 Full time
Aurora vs Suchitepéquez overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aurora vs Suchitepéquez
| Probability | Aurora | Draw | Suchitepéquez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.3% | 29.3% | 16.3% |
| Market | 47.0% | 29.3% | 23.6% |
| Final | 48.8% | 29.3% | 21.8% |
| Edge | +7.3% | -0.0% | -7.3% |
Why Aurora
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.68.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Aurora below the model: +7.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aurora and Suchitepéquez expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.11
Aurora and Suchitepéquez attack and defence ratings
Aurora
Suchitepéquez
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Aurora vs Suchitepéquez: result vs prediction
Aurora 3 – 2 Suchitepéquez
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aurora vs Suchitepéquez markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aurora | 48.8% | 2.05 | +7.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.2% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.7% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aurora | 48.8% |
| Draw | 29.3% | |
| Suchitepéquez | 21.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.6% |
| No | 61.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aurora win | 28.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.1% | |
| Loss | 45.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.2% |
| 0-0 | 13.2% | |
| 1-1 | 12.9% |
Aurora vs Suchitepéquez stats
Aurora and Suchitepéquez recent form
| Aurora |
LWLLDL |
| Suchitepéquez |
LLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aurora and Suchitepéquez going into this match
Aurora record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Suchitepéquez record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
Aurora vs Suchitepéquez head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Aurora vs Suchitepéquez odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.7%, draw 29.4%, away 24.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| 1xBet | 1.90 | 2.97 | 4.20 |
| 888Sport | 1.85 | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.10 | 3.90 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.25 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 1.95 | 3.10 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.88 | 2.97 | 4.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.92 | 2.98 | 4.26 |
| Superbet | 1.95 | 3.10 | 3.90 |
| Unibet | 1.96 | 3.25 | 3.30 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.10 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .