Aurora
vs
Malacateco
1 – 0 Full time
| 24′ | G. Vasquez | ||
| 29′ | J. Lemus | ||
| 43′ | D. Ruiz | ||
| 45′ | M. Chun | ||
| 46′ | J. LemusC. Monterroso | ||
| 46′ | L. ContrerasJ. Ticuru | ||
| 58′ | J. OchoaR. Meneses | ||
| 58′ | E. QuinonesV. Paz | ||
| 62′ | D. RuizJ. Rodriguez | ||
| 70′ | J. VivasR. Hernandez | ||
| 70′ | F. MoralesK. Ramirez | ||
| 70′ | I. de LeonA. Soto | ||
| 84′ | J. LongoD. Sanchez | ||
| 87′ | D. BajanP. Mingorance |
Aurora vs Malacateco overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aurora vs Malacateco
| Probability | Aurora | Draw | Malacateco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.8% | 26.0% | 20.2% |
| Market | 46.4% | 28.2% | 25.4% |
| Final | 48.2% | 27.7% | 24.1% |
| Edge | +7.4% | -2.2% | -5.2% |
Why Aurora
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 0.98.
- The market prices Aurora below the model: +7.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aurora and Malacateco expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.71
Aurora and Malacateco attack and defence ratings
Aurora
Malacateco
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Aurora vs Malacateco: result vs prediction
Aurora 1 – 0 Malacateco
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aurora vs Malacateco markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aurora | 48.2% | 2.07 | +7.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.4% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aurora | 48.2% |
| Draw | 27.7% | |
| Malacateco | 24.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% |
| No | 47.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aurora win | 30.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 46.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 1-0 | 10.3% | |
| 2-0 | 9.9% |
Aurora vs Malacateco stats
Aurora and Malacateco recent form
| Aurora |
WLWLLD |
| Malacateco |
WLDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aurora and Malacateco going into this match
Aurora record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Malacateco record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aurora vs Malacateco head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | Malacateco | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Aurora | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-10 | Aurora | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-1 |
| 2025-12-07 | Malacateco | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Malacateco | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-07 | Aurora | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aurora vs Malacateco odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.4%, draw 28.2%, away 25.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.95 | 3.20 | 3.55 |
| 1xBet | 1.96 | 3.24 | 3.54 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.20 | 3.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.25 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.20 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.97 | 3.35 | 3.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.97 | 3.28 | 3.56 |
| Superbet | 1.97 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
| Unibet | 2.04 | 3.15 | 3.15 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.00 | 3.50 |