Guatemala Liga Nacional
·
Full time
·Matchday 6
Guastatoya
vs
Marquense
1 – 2 Full time
Guastatoya
70%
Draw
20%
Marquense
10%
Guastatoya vs Marquense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Guastatoya vs Marquense
| Probability | Guastatoya | Draw | Marquense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.0% | 20.1% | 9.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 70.0% | 20.1% | 9.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Guastatoya
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 0.70.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
79%
3+ goals
54%
No goals
7%
Guastatoya and Marquense expected goals
Guastatoya
2.15
Marquense
0.70
Total expected goals: 2.85
Guastatoya and Marquense attack and defence ratings
Guastatoya
Attack
1.12 +12%
Defence
0.96 -4%
Marquense
Attack
0.90 -10%
Defence
1.17 +17%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Guastatoya vs Marquense: result vs prediction
Guastatoya 1 – 2 Marquense
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Guastatoya vs Marquense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guastatoya | 70.0% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.1% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Guastatoya win | 46.3% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guastatoya | 70.0% |
| Draw | 20.1% | |
| Marquense | 9.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.3% |
| No | 54.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 30.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Guastatoya win | 46.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 30.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.4% |
| 1-0 | 11.6% | |
| 3-0 | 9.6% |
Guastatoya vs Marquense stats
Guastatoya and Marquense recent form
| Guastatoya |
LWLWWL |
| Marquense |
WWLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Guastatoya and Marquense going into this match
Guastatoya record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Marquense record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Guastatoya vs Marquense head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
3Guastatoya wins
1Draws
0Marquense wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Guastatoya | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 4-0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Marquense | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 2-2 |
| 2025-11-23 | Guastatoya | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 5-0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Marquense | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.