Dundalk
vs
Shamrock Rovers
Garuda Lions Prediction: Shamrock Rovers
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.48.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Shamrock Rovers is the favourite, not a value bet.
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers
| Probability | Dundalk | Draw | Shamrock Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.3% | 22.8% | 50.9% |
| Market | 28.1% | 25.7% | 46.2% |
| Final | 27.6% | 25.0% | 47.4% |
| Edge | -0.4% | -0.7% | +1.2% |
Why Shamrock Rovers
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.48.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.9% per unit staked (our 47.4% × 2.05 − 1).
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers match preview
Dundalk faces Shamrock Rovers in a Premier Division clash with kickoff set for October 30, 2026. According to our model, Dundalk has a 28% chance of winning, while Shamrock Rovers holds a 47% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. Both teams are expected to score, with a 69% likelihood for over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Dundalk has struggled with five losses and two draws in their last seven matches, while Shamrock Rovers has shown stronger performance, winning four of their last six games. Expected goals for this match are 1.48 for Dundalk and 2.09 for Shamrock Rovers, indicating a challenging matchup for the home side. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.58
Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers attack and defence ratings
Dundalk
Shamrock Rovers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
Before and after this match
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shamrock Rovers | 47.4% | 2.11 | +1.2% | 2.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.1% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dundalk | 27.6% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Shamrock Rovers | 47.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.6% |
| No | 31.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Shamrock Rovers win | 30.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 49.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | |
| 2-2 | 6.7% |
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers stats
Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers recent form
| Dundalk |
LDLLLD |
| Shamrock Rovers |
WLWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers season so far
Dundalk record
- They have won 10 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Shamrock Rovers record
- They have won 20 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Shamrock Rovers | Dundalk | Premier Division | 3-2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Dundalk | Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division | 1-0 |
| 2026-02-23 | Shamrock Rovers | Dundalk | Premier Division | 1-1 |
| 2024-10-27 | Dundalk | Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division | 0-1 |
| 2024-07-04 | Shamrock Rovers | Dundalk | Premier Division | 1-0 |
| 2024-05-17 | Dundalk | Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division | 1-0 |
| 2024-02-16 | Shamrock Rovers | Dundalk | Premier Division | 1-1 |
| 2023-08-25 | Shamrock Rovers | Dundalk | Premier Division | 1-0 |
| 2023-07-23 | Dundalk | Shamrock Rovers | FAI Cup | 1-0 |
| 2023-06-30 | Dundalk | Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.1%, draw 25.7%, away 46.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.30 | 3.70 | 2.01 |
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
| BetVictor | 3.25 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.02 |
| Betfair | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.04 |
| Marathonbet | 3.30 | 3.70 | 1.99 |
| Pinnacle | 3.47 | 3.75 | 2.05 |
| SBO | 3.02 | 3.28 | 1.94 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .