Sligo Rovers
vs
Derry City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Derry City
0 – 2 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.93.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Derry City is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sligo Rovers vs Derry City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sligo Rovers vs Derry City
| Probability | Sligo Rovers | Draw | Derry City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.3% | 23.4% | 60.3% |
| Market | 18.2% | 22.1% | 59.8% |
| Final | 17.7% | 22.4% | 59.9% |
| Edge | -0.5% | +0.3% | +0.1% |
Why Derry City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.59, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.8% per unit staked (our 59.9% × 1.59 − 1).
Sligo Rovers vs Derry City match preview
Sligo Rovers face Derry City in a Premier Division clash with contrasting recent forms. Sligo Rovers have struggled, registering six consecutive matches without a win, while Derry City has shown stronger performance with four wins in their last six games. According to our model, the probabilities suggest Derry City has a significant advantage at 60%, compared to Sligo Rovers at 18% and a draw at 22%.
The expected goals indicate a further disparity, with Sligo Rovers projected to score 0.93 and Derry City at 1.96. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, occurring with an 11% probability. Additionally, there is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% likelihood that both teams will score in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sligo Rovers and Derry City expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.89
Sligo Rovers and Derry City attack and defence ratings
Sligo Rovers
Derry City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sligo Rovers vs Derry City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Derry City | 59.9% | 1.67 | +0.1% | 1.59 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 82.3% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.7% | 2.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sligo Rovers | 17.7% |
| Draw | 22.4% | |
| Derry City | 59.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.1% |
| No | 46.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 40.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Derry City win | 37.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 39.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 0-2 | 10.6% | |
| 1-2 | 9.9% |
Sligo Rovers vs Derry City stats
Sligo Rovers and Derry City recent form
| Sligo Rovers |
LDLLLL |
| Derry City |
WWLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sligo Rovers and Derry City season so far
Sligo Rovers record
- They have won 5 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Derry City record
- They have won 11 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Sligo Rovers vs Derry City head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Derry City | Sligo Rovers | Premier Division | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-06 | Sligo Rovers | Derry City | Premier Division | 0-0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Derry City | Sligo Rovers | Premier Division | 2-1 |
| 2026-01-09 | Sligo Rovers | Derry City | Friendlies Clubs | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Derry City | Sligo Rovers | Premier Division | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Sligo Rovers | Derry City | Premier Division | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-22 | Derry City | Sligo Rovers | Premier Division | 3-0 |
| 2025-03-15 | Sligo Rovers | Derry City | Premier Division | 0-1 |
| 2025-01-21 | Sligo Rovers | Derry City | Friendlies Clubs | 2-3 |
| 2024-10-14 | Derry City | Sligo Rovers | Premier Division | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sligo Rovers vs Derry City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 18.2%, draw 22.1%, away 59.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.26 | 4.20 | 1.56 |
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 4.33 | 1.55 |
| BetVictor | 5.25 | 4.00 | 1.53 |
| Betano | 5.00 | 4.15 | 1.57 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 4.33 | 1.55 |
| Dafabet | 5.20 | 4.30 | 1.55 |
| Marathonbet | 5.35 | 4.20 | 1.54 |
| Pinnacle | 5.32 | 4.35 | 1.59 |
| SBO | 4.73 | 3.73 | 1.50 |
| William Hill | 5.00 | 4.00 | 1.57 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .