Derry City
vs
Dundalk
Garuda Lions Prediction: Derry City
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Derry City vs Dundalk overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Derry City vs Dundalk
| Probability | Derry City | Draw | Dundalk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.2% | 22.2% | 23.6% |
| Market | 53.8% | 23.9% | 22.3% |
| Final | 53.9% | 23.5% | 22.6% |
| Edge | +0.4% | -1.7% | +1.3% |
Why Derry City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.40.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Derry City vs Dundalk match preview
Derry City enters this match with a 54% probability of winning, while Dundalk holds a 24% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Derry City, with an expected goals tally of 2.17 for Derry City compared to 1.40 for Dundalk. The model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams scoring at 68%.
In terms of recent form, Derry City has recorded a mixed set of results with one win in their last six matches, while Dundalk has struggled, losing four of their last six. Historically, in their last three encounters, Derry City has not secured a win, with two draws and one victory for Dundalk. The confidence grade for this matchup is rated at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Derry City and Dundalk expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.58
Derry City and Dundalk attack and defence ratings
Derry City
Dundalk
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Derry City vs Dundalk markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Derry City | 53.9% | 1.85 | +0.4% | 1.73 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.8% | 2.18 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Derry City | 53.9% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| Dundalk | 22.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.7% |
| No | 32.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Derry City win | 33.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 45.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 3-1 | 6.7% |
Derry City vs Dundalk stats
Derry City and Dundalk recent form
| Derry City |
LWDWDL |
| Dundalk |
LLLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Derry City and Dundalk season so far
Derry City record
- They have won 9 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Dundalk record
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Derry City vs Dundalk head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Dundalk | Derry City | Premier Division | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Dundalk | Derry City | Premier Division | 2-2 |
| 2026-02-13 | Derry City | Dundalk | Premier Division | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Derry City vs Dundalk odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.8%, draw 23.9%, away 22.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.73 | 3.90 | 4.18 |