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Premier Division · Full time ·Matchday 33

Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.

1 – 0 Full time

21′Darragh Burns
45′Brooklyn Lyons-FosterConor Barry
53′Anthony Olusanya
57′Aidan KeenaRyan Edmondson
57′Anto BreslinJason McClelland
62′Kévin Santos
63′Kian LeavyChristopher Forrester
64′Barry BaggleyRyan Sheridan
70′James Clarke
72′Kévin SantosDarragh Markey
75′Luke·TurnerRomal Palmer
80′nick twiskCameron Dummigan
80′Christopher Forrester
85′Tyler·SmithTerence Doherty

Brandywell Stadium, DelhiReferee: Aaron O'Dowd

Derry City 27%
Draw 28%
St Patrick's Athl. 45%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 29
3 Shots on target 5
47 Possession % 53
3 Corners 10
10 Fouls 4
3 Offsides 2
5 Saves 2
354 Accurate passes 386

Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDerry CityDrawSt Patrick's Athl.
Model23.7%27.8%48.5%
Market27.8%28.2%44.0%
Final26.8%28.1%45.1%
Edge-1.0%-0.1%+1.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why St Patrick's Athl.

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.02.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Derry City ↓ / St Patrick's A → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 11% 9% 1 13% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 9%

Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. expected goals

Derry City 1.02
St Patrick's Athl. 1.56

Total expected goals: 2.58

Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. attack and defence ratings

Derry City

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 1.18 +18%

St Patrick's Athl.

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 0.68 -32%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.: result vs prediction

Derry City 1 – 0 St Patrick's Athl.

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Premier Division

Before and after this match

Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 St Patrick's Athl. 45.1% 2.21 +1.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 52.3% 1.91 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.8% 1.93 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 73.2% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.5% 1.94 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Derry City26.8%
Draw28.1%
St Patrick's Athl.45.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547.7%
Under 2.552.3%
Both teams to scoreYes51.8%
No48.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)54.9%
12 (either side)71.9%
X2 (draw or away)73.2%
Handicap -1St Patrick's Athl. win25.6%
Push (exactly one goal)22.8%
Loss51.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.3%
0-110.6%
1-29.4%

Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. stats

Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. recent form

newest first
Derry City LWDWDL
St Patrick's Athl. LWWWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. going into this match

league record before kick-off

Derry City record

  • They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

St Patrick's Athl. record

  • They have won 17 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Derry City wins 4Draws 2St Patrick's Athl. wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-02St Patrick's Athl.Derry CityPremier Division1-1
2026-05-22Derry CitySt Patrick's Athl.Premier Division0-0
2026-03-16St Patrick's Athl.Derry CityPremier Division0-0
2025-08-29Derry CitySt Patrick's Athl.Premier Division2-2
2025-06-23St Patrick's Athl.Derry CityPremier Division0-1
2025-05-05Derry CitySt Patrick's Athl.Premier Division1-0
2025-03-03St Patrick's Athl.Derry CityPremier Division2-0
2024-10-25St Patrick's Athl.Derry CityPremier Division1-0
2024-07-21Derry CitySt Patrick's Athl.FAI Cup3-0
2024-05-17St Patrick's Athl.Derry CityPremier Division0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 27.8%, draw 28.2%, away 44.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.40 3.28 2.12
Bet365 3.25 3.25 2.05
BetVictor 3.30 3.30 2.05
Betano 3.35 3.30 2.10
Betfair 3.30 3.40 2.05
Dafabet 3.30 3.25 2.17
Marathonbet 3.40 3.28 2.10
Pinnacle 3.55 3.36 2.18
SBO 3.06 3.00 2.12
William Hill 3.40 3.10 2.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.33 ▲ +0.32
X 3.28 ▼ -0.25
2 2.10 ▼ -0.20

30 snapshots recorded, from .