Derry City
vs
St Patrick's Athl.
Garuda Lions Prediction: St Patrick's Athl.
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.
| Probability | Derry City | Draw | St Patrick's Athl. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.3% | 27.8% | 50.9% |
| Market | 31.1% | 28.3% | 40.6% |
| Final | 28.7% | 28.2% | 43.2% |
| Edge | -9.8% | -0.5% | +10.3% |
Why St Patrick's Athl.
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices St Patrick's Athl. below the model: +10.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. match preview
Derry City faces St Patrick's Athletic in a Premier Division clash, with the probabilities indicating a 29% chance of a Derry City win, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 43% chance for St Patrick's Athletic. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 12%. Derry City has an expected goals figure of 0.94, while St Patrick's Athletic stands at 1.57.
In terms of recent form, Derry City has recorded a mixed bag with three wins, two draws, and a loss in their last six matches. In contrast, St Patrick's Athletic boasts a strong run with five wins and one loss over the same span. The head-to-head record in the last ten encounters shows Derry City with four wins, St Patrick's Athletic with two, and four matches ending in draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.50
Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. attack and defence ratings
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 43.2% | 2.32 | +10.3% | 2.32 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.1% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Derry City | 28.7% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| St Patrick's Athl. | 43.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.3% |
| No | 50.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | St Patrick's Athl. win | 27.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 49.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 0-1 | 11.6% | |
| 0-2 | 10.1% |
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. stats
Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. recent form
| Derry City |
WDWDLW |
| St Patrick's Athl. |
WWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. season so far
Derry City record
- They have won 9 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
St Patrick's Athl. record
- They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | St Patrick's Athl. | Derry City | Premier Division | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Derry City | St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division | 0-0 |
| 2026-03-16 | St Patrick's Athl. | Derry City | Premier Division | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-29 | Derry City | St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division | 2-2 |
| 2025-06-23 | St Patrick's Athl. | Derry City | Premier Division | 0-1 |
| 2025-05-05 | Derry City | St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-03 | St Patrick's Athl. | Derry City | Premier Division | 2-0 |
| 2024-10-25 | St Patrick's Athl. | Derry City | Premier Division | 1-0 |
| 2024-07-21 | Derry City | St Patrick's Athl. | FAI Cup | 3-0 |
| 2024-05-17 | St Patrick's Athl. | Derry City | Premier Division | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.2%, draw 28.2%, away 40.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.97 | 3.30 | 2.32 |
| Betano | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.30 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
| Dafabet | 3.05 | 3.25 | 2.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.96 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Pinnacle | 3.13 | 3.33 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .