Drogheda United
vs
Derry City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Derry City
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Drogheda United vs Derry City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Drogheda United vs Derry City
| Probability | Drogheda United | Draw | Derry City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.4% | 25.9% | 38.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 35.4% | 25.9% | 38.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Derry City
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Drogheda United and Derry City expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.12
Drogheda United and Derry City attack and defence ratings
Drogheda United
Derry City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Drogheda United vs Derry City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Derry City | 38.7% | 2.59 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Drogheda United | 35.4% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Derry City | 38.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% |
| No | 36.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Derry City win | 19.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 61.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 2-1 | 8.2% |
Drogheda United vs Derry City stats
Drogheda United and Derry City recent form
| Drogheda United |
LLWWLL |
| Derry City |
WDWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Drogheda United and Derry City season so far
Drogheda United record
- They have won 8 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Derry City record
- They have won 9 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Drogheda United vs Derry City head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Derry City | Drogheda United | Premier Division | 2-0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Drogheda United | Derry City | Premier Division | 1-0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Derry City | Drogheda United | Premier Division | 2-2 |
| 2025-09-26 | Drogheda United | Derry City | Premier Division | 1-1 |
| 2025-06-27 | Derry City | Drogheda United | Premier Division | 3-0 |
| 2025-05-16 | Drogheda United | Derry City | Premier Division | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-11 | Derry City | Drogheda United | Premier Division | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.