Premier Division
·
·Matchday 34
St Patrick's Athl.
vs
Shelbourne
Garuda Lions Prediction: St Patrick's Athl.
2 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
St Patrick's Athl.
66%
Draw
23%
Shelbourne
11%
Chance St Patrick's Athl. wins
66%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
91%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
42%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 0
14% of simulated outcomes
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne overview
Garuda Lions analysis: St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne
| Probability | St Patrick's Athl. | Draw | Shelbourne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.0% | 22.9% | 11.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 66.0% | 22.9% | 11.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why St Patrick's Athl.
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
91%
2+ goals
73%
3+ goals
47%
No goals
9%
St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne expected goals
St Patrick's Athl.
1.89
Shelbourne
0.66
Total expected goals: 2.55
St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne attack and defence ratings
St Patrick's Athl.
Attack
1.16 +16%
Defence
0.57 -43%
Shelbourne
Attack
0.98 -2%
Defence
1.14 +14%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 66.0% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.9% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | St Patrick's Athl. win | 40.8% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 66.0% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| Shelbourne | 11.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.8% |
| No | 58.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 34.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | St Patrick's Athl. win | 40.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.1% | |
| Loss | 34.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 13.8% | |
| 1-1 | 10.7% |
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne stats
St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne recent form
| St Patrick's Athl. |
WWWLWW |
| Shelbourne |
DWLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne season so far
St Patrick's Athl. record
- They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Shelbourne record
- They have won 9 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
2St Patrick's Athl. wins
2Draws
3Shelbourne wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Shelbourne | St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division | 1-2 |
| 2026-05-15 | St Patrick's Athl. | Shelbourne | Premier Division | 0-1 |
| 2026-03-06 | Shelbourne | St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division | 2-3 |
| 2025-11-01 | Shelbourne | St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division | 0-0 |
| 2025-06-16 | St Patrick's Athl. | Shelbourne | Premier Division | 0-1 |
| 2025-05-09 | Shelbourne | St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-04 | St Patrick's Athl. | Shelbourne | Premier Division | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.