Garuda Lions
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Premier Division · Full time ·Matchday 34

St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne

1 – 2 Full time

43′Jamie Lennon
49′Sean Moore
62′Kian LeavyRyan Sheridan
66′Ademipo OdubekoJohn Martin
66′Marco UntergrabnerJonathan Lunney
71′James NorrisSam Bone
72′Jack Henry-FrancisAlistair Coote
72′Barry BaggleyChristopher Forrester
72′Anthony OlusanyaRyan Edmondson
80′Jason McClelland
81′Daniel Kelly
83′Aidan KeenaRomal Palmer
83′Jason McClellandJames Brown
84′Daniel Kelly
88′Sean MooreSean Boyd
90′Alistair Coote
90′Eddie Beach

Richmond Park, Dublin

St Patrick's Athl. 58%
Draw 24%
Shelbourne 18%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

24 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 2
62 Possession % 38
12 Corners 3
7 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 1
0 Saves 4
397 Accurate passes 245

St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne overview

Garuda Lions analysis: St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySt Patrick's Athl.DrawShelbourne
Model58.8%25.0%16.2%
Market58.1%23.3%18.5%
Final58.3%23.7%18.0%
Edge+0.2%+0.4%-0.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why St Patrick's Athl.

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 0.84.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

St Patrick's A ↓ / Shelbourne → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 12% 12% 2 12% 10% 3 7% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 49%
No goals 8%

St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne expected goals

St Patrick's Athl. 1.80
Shelbourne 0.84

Total expected goals: 2.64

St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne attack and defence ratings

St Patrick's Athl.

Attack 1.16 +16%
Defence 0.57 -43%

Shelbourne

Attack 1.27 +27%
Defence 1.08 +8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne: result vs prediction

St Patrick's Athl. 1 – 2 Shelbourne

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 34 fixtures

Premier Division

Before and after this match

St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 St Patrick's Athl. 58.3% 1.72 +0.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.8% 1.97 — —
Both teams to score No 51.4% 1.95 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 82.0% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 40.9% 2.45 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2St Patrick's Athl.58.3%
Draw23.7%
Shelbourne18.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.2%
Under 2.550.8%
Both teams to scoreYes48.6%
No51.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)82.0%
12 (either side)76.3%
X2 (draw or away)41.7%
Handicap -1St Patrick's Athl. win34.9%
Push (exactly one goal)24.2%
Loss40.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.9%
1-011.7%
2-011.5%

St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne stats

St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne recent form

newest first
St Patrick's Athl. WWWLWW
Shelbourne WDWLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne going into this match

league record before kick-off

St Patrick's Athl. record

  • They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 13 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Shelbourne record

  • They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4St Patrick's Athl. wins 2Draws 4Shelbourne wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-09ShelbourneSt Patrick's Athl.Premier Division1-2
2026-05-15St Patrick's Athl.ShelbournePremier Division0-1
2026-03-06ShelbourneSt Patrick's Athl.Premier Division2-3
2025-11-01ShelbourneSt Patrick's Athl.Premier Division0-0
2025-08-17St Patrick's Athl.ShelbourneFAI Cup2-0
2025-06-16St Patrick's Athl.ShelbournePremier Division0-1
2025-05-09ShelbourneSt Patrick's Athl.Premier Division2-1
2025-04-04St Patrick's Athl.ShelbournePremier Division0-0
2024-09-30ShelbourneSt Patrick's Athl.Premier Division2-3
2024-05-20St Patrick's Athl.ShelbournePremier Division1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

St Patrick's Athl. vs Shelbourne odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 58.5%, draw 23.1%, away 18.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.61 4.05 4.98
Bet365 1.60 3.80 5.00
BetVictor 1.57 3.90 5.00
Betano 1.57 3.90 5.30
Betfair 1.57 4.10 5.00
Dafabet 1.57 4.10 5.40
Marathonbet 1.59 4.05 5.05
Pinnacle 1.61 4.22 5.38
SBO 1.51 3.76 5.03
William Hill 1.57 3.90 5.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.60 ▲ +0.04
X 3.97 ▼ -0.13
2 5.00 ▼ -0.38

14 snapshots recorded, from .