Waterford
vs
Drogheda United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Waterford
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Waterford vs Drogheda United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Waterford vs Drogheda United
| Probability | Waterford | Draw | Drogheda United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.9% | 25.1% | 22.1% |
| Market | 44.3% | 26.2% | 29.5% |
| Final | 46.5% | 25.9% | 27.6% |
| Edge | +8.5% | -1.1% | -7.4% |
Why Waterford
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.12.
- The market prices Waterford below the model: +8.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Waterford vs Drogheda United match preview
Waterford and Drogheda United are set to clash in the Premier Division, with Waterford holding a 53% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 2-1 in favor of Waterford, with an expected goals tally of 1.82 for Waterford and 1.12 for Drogheda United. The match also suggests a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% likelihood that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Waterford has recorded two losses, two draws, and one win in their last five matches, while Drogheda United has seen a mix of results with three wins and two losses. The head-to-head record over the last seven encounters shows Waterford and Drogheda United each securing two wins, alongside three draws, indicating a competitive matchup ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Waterford and Drogheda United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.94
Waterford and Drogheda United attack and defence ratings
Waterford
Drogheda United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Waterford vs Drogheda United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Waterford | 46.5% | 2.15 | +8.5% | 2.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.1% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Waterford | 46.5% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Drogheda United | 27.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.5% |
| No | 42.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Waterford win | 30.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 47.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.8% |
Waterford vs Drogheda United stats
Waterford and Drogheda United recent form
| Waterford |
LLDDWD |
| Drogheda United |
WLLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Waterford and Drogheda United season so far
Waterford record
- They have won 7 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Drogheda United record
- They have won 8 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Waterford vs Drogheda United head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Drogheda United | Waterford | Premier Division | 3-3 |
| 2026-05-18 | Waterford | Drogheda United | Premier Division | 2-1 |
| 2026-02-13 | Drogheda United | Waterford | Premier Division | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Waterford | Drogheda United | Premier Division | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-08 | Drogheda United | Waterford | Premier Division | 0-0 |
| 2025-05-30 | Waterford | Drogheda United | Premier Division | 2-2 |
| 2025-04-04 | Drogheda United | Waterford | Premier Division | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Waterford vs Drogheda United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.3%, draw 26.2%, away 29.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.10 | 3.55 | 3.16 |