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Premier Division · Full time ·Matchday 33

Waterford vs Galway United

3 – 2 Full time

18′Padraig Amond
32′Stephen Walsh
34′Noah Mawene
45′Padraig Amond
45′Kristopher Twardekfrancely lomboto
45′Ed McCarthyMatthew Wolfe
52′Gianfranco Facchineri
52′Lee Devitt Molloy
60′Stephen Walsh
64′Graham Coughlan
67′Aaron Bolger
74′Stephen WalshFrantz Pierrot
80′C.NoonanDean Mcmenamy
80′Noah MaweneLuke Heeney
81′Jordan HoustonJørgen Voilås
89′Tom Lonergan
90′Tom Lonergan
90′Lee Devitt MolloyJunior Thiam
90′Aaron BolgerDylan Connolly

Waterford Regional Sports Centre, WaterfordReferee: Oliver Moran

Waterford 47%
Draw 26%
Galway United 27%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

18 Shots 10
7 Shots on target 5
54 Possession % 46
6 Corners 3
7 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 1
3 Saves 3
205 Accurate passes 166

Waterford vs Galway United overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Waterford vs Galway United

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityWaterfordDrawGalway United
Model44.7%27.6%27.7%
Market47.9%25.0%27.1%
Final47.1%25.7%27.2%
Edge-0.8%+0.6%+0.2%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Waterford

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.17.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Waterford ↓ / Galway United → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 9% 13% 7% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Waterford and Galway United expected goals

Waterford 1.54
Galway United 1.17

Total expected goals: 2.72

Waterford and Galway United attack and defence ratings

Waterford

Attack 1.19 +19%
Defence 1.02 +2%

Galway United

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Waterford vs Galway United: result vs prediction

Waterford 3 – 2 Galway United

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Premier Division

Before and after this match

Waterford vs Galway United markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Waterford 47.1% 2.12 -0.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 51.1% 1.96 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.6% 1.80 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.3% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.3% 1.81 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Waterford47.1%
Draw25.7%
Galway United27.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551.1%
Under 2.548.9%
Both teams to scoreYes55.6%
No44.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)72.8%
12 (either side)74.3%
X2 (draw or away)52.9%
Handicap -1Waterford win23.2%
Push (exactly one goal)21.5%
Loss55.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.2%
2-19.2%
1-09.0%

Waterford vs Galway United stats

Waterford and Galway United recent form

newest first
Waterford LLDDWD
Galway United WDLWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Waterford and Galway United going into this match

league record before kick-off

Waterford record

  • They have won 7 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 9 penalties (67%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Galway United record

  • They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Waterford vs Galway United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Waterford wins 4Draws 4Galway United wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-25Galway UnitedWaterfordPremier Division0-0
2026-04-24WaterfordGalway UnitedPremier Division1-1
2026-03-16Galway UnitedWaterfordPremier Division4-3
2025-11-01WaterfordGalway UnitedPremier Division1-1
2025-07-25Galway UnitedWaterfordPremier Division2-4
2025-05-09WaterfordGalway UnitedPremier Division1-0
2025-03-14Galway UnitedWaterfordPremier Division1-0
2024-09-27WaterfordGalway UnitedPremier Division1-2
2024-07-12Galway UnitedWaterfordPremier Division1-0
2024-04-12WaterfordGalway UnitedPremier Division0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Waterford vs Galway United odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.9%, draw 25.0%, away 27.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.94 3.80 3.44
Bet365 1.85 3.60 3.60
BetVictor 1.87 3.70 3.40
Betano 1.98 3.65 3.30
Betfair 1.85 3.90 3.70
Dafabet 1.97 3.70 3.40
Marathonbet 1.92 3.80 3.44
Pinnacle 1.94 4.15 3.50
SBO 1.90 3.42 3.21
William Hill 1.95 3.50 3.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.93 ▼ -0.15
X 3.70 ▼ -0.26
2 3.42 ▲ +0.40

30 snapshots recorded, from .