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Premier Division · Full time ·Matchday 33

Dundalk vs Bohemians

1 – 2 Full time

26′Colm Whelan
28′Connor Parsons
49′Harvey Warren
54′Harvey WarrenEgor Vassenin
54′Senan Mullen
62′Harry Patrick VaughanZ. Myers
62′Senan MullenSadou Diallo
62′Colm WhelanJames Taylor
67′Ross Tierney
72′leonardo gaxhaDeclan McDaid
72′Aodh DervinNorman Garbett
72′Trevor ClarkeCian dillon
77′Connor ParsonsDayle Rooney
81′Darragh PowerNiall Morahan
83′ronan teahanHarry Groome
88′Daryl Horgan
89′cian byrne

Oriel Park, Dundalk

Dundalk 24%
Draw 23%
Bohemians 53%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 12
5 Shots on target 3
48 Possession % 52
2 Corners 4
13 Fouls 18
1 Offsides 1
1 Saves 4
256 Accurate passes 315

Dundalk vs Bohemians overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Dundalk vs Bohemians

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDundalkDrawBohemians
Model24.4%19.9%55.6%
Market23.6%23.7%52.8%
Final23.8%22.7%53.5%
Edge+0.9%-3.8%+2.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Bohemians

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 1.69.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Bohemians below the model: +2.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Dundalk ↓ / Bohemians → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 4% 5% 1 7% 8% 7% 8% 2 5% 7% 6% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 93%
3+ goals 79%
No goals 2%

Dundalk and Bohemians expected goals

Dundalk 1.69
Bohemians 2.53

Total expected goals: 4.22

Dundalk and Bohemians attack and defence ratings

Dundalk

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 1.45 +45%

Bohemians

Attack 1.50 +50%
Defence 1.12 +12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Dundalk vs Bohemians: result vs prediction

Dundalk 1 – 2 Bohemians

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 33 fixtures

Premier Division

Before and after this match

Dundalk vs Bohemians markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Bohemians 53.5% 1.87 +2.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 79.2% 1.26 — —
Both teams to score Yes 75.6% 1.32 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.3% 1.29 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 44.4% 2.25 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Dundalk23.8%
Draw22.7%
Bohemians53.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.579.2%
Under 2.520.8%
Both teams to scoreYes75.6%
No24.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)46.5%
12 (either side)77.3%
X2 (draw or away)76.2%
Handicap -1Bohemians win36.4%
Push (exactly one goal)19.2%
Loss44.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-28.0%
1-16.9%
1-36.7%

Dundalk vs Bohemians stats

Dundalk and Bohemians recent form

newest first
Dundalk LLDWLL
Bohemians WWWWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Dundalk and Bohemians going into this match

league record before kick-off

Dundalk record

  • They have won 10 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Bohemians record

  • They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).

Dundalk vs Bohemians head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Dundalk wins 3Draws 4Bohemians wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-06-19BohemiansDundalkPremier Division1-2
2026-05-08DundalkBohemiansPremier Division1-3
2026-03-20BohemiansDundalkPremier Division1-1
2024-09-27DundalkBohemiansPremier Division0-2
2024-07-26BohemiansDundalkPremier Division1-1
2024-04-26DundalkBohemiansPremier Division2-0
2024-04-15BohemiansDundalkPremier Division1-0
2023-10-27DundalkBohemiansPremier Division2-0
2023-07-07BohemiansDundalkPremier Division3-2
2023-05-19DundalkBohemiansPremier Division2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Dundalk vs Bohemians odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 23.6%, draw 23.7%, away 52.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.92 4.49 1.75
Bet365 3.75 3.75 1.80
BetVictor 4.00 3.90 1.70
Betano 3.85 3.80 1.80
Betfair 4.00 3.90 1.75
Marathonbet 3.84 3.84 1.81
Pinnacle 4.07 4.03 1.83
SBO 3.70 3.64 1.72
William Hill 4.00 4.00 1.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.92 ▲ +0.87
X 3.90 ▲ +0.34
2 1.75 ▼ -0.38

20 snapshots recorded, from .