Shelbourne
vs
Waterford
Garuda Lions Prediction: Shelbourne
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.44.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Shelbourne is the favourite, not a value bet.
Shelbourne vs Waterford overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Shelbourne vs Waterford
| Probability | Shelbourne | Draw | Waterford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.0% | 24.7% | 29.3% |
| Market | 47.3% | 24.5% | 28.2% |
| Final | 47.0% | 24.5% | 28.5% |
| Edge | -0.3% | +0.0% | +0.3% |
Why Shelbourne
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.44.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.1% per unit staked (our 47.0% × 2.02 − 1).
Shelbourne vs Waterford match preview
Shelbourne enters this match with a solid recent form, having won three of their last five games, while Waterford has seen mixed results with two wins and three draws in their last five outings. The probabilities suggest Shelbourne holds a 47% chance of winning, with a likely scoreline of 2-1, which aligns with an expected goals metric of 1.84 for Shelbourne compared to 1.44 for Waterford.
Both teams are expected to contribute to the scoreline, with a 65% chance of both teams scoring and a 64% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. In their last ten encounters, Shelbourne has dominated with six wins, while Waterford has managed only two victories, indicating a favorable historical trend for Shelbourne as they prepare for this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Shelbourne and Waterford expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.27
Shelbourne and Waterford attack and defence ratings
Shelbourne
Waterford
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
Before and after this match
Shelbourne vs Waterford markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shelbourne | 47.0% | 2.13 | -0.3% | 2.02 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.5% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.5% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shelbourne | 47.0% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Waterford | 28.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.1% |
| No | 34.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Shelbourne win | 25.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 54.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 1-2 | 7.2% |
Shelbourne vs Waterford stats
Shelbourne and Waterford recent form
| Shelbourne |
WWWDWL |
| Waterford |
WWLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Shelbourne and Waterford season so far
Shelbourne record
- They have won 12 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Waterford record
- They have won 9 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 9 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Shelbourne vs Waterford head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Waterford | Shelbourne | Premier Division | 1-0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Shelbourne | Waterford | Premier Division | 2-1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Waterford | Shelbourne | Premier Division | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-26 | Shelbourne | Waterford | Premier Division | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-23 | Waterford | Shelbourne | Premier Division | 2-2 |
| 2025-05-05 | Shelbourne | Waterford | Premier Division | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-21 | Waterford | Shelbourne | Premier Division | 0-1 |
| 2025-01-18 | Shelbourne | Waterford | Friendlies Clubs | 4-1 |
| 2024-10-18 | Shelbourne | Waterford | Premier Division | 3-1 |
| 2024-06-13 | Waterford | Shelbourne | Premier Division | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Shelbourne vs Waterford odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.3%, draw 24.5%, away 28.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.96 | 3.84 | 3.34 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.80 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.70 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 3.65 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.01 | 3.75 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 1.94 | 3.84 | 3.34 |
| Pinnacle | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.42 |
| SBO | 1.99 | 3.28 | 2.93 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .