St Patrick's Athl.
vs
Bohemians
Garuda Lions Prediction: St Patrick's Athl.
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.94.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — St Patrick's Athl. is the favourite, not a value bet.
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians overview
Garuda Lions analysis: St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians
| Probability | St Patrick's Athl. | Draw | Bohemians |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.1% | 28.1% | 21.8% |
| Market | 45.9% | 26.2% | 27.9% |
| Final | 47.0% | 26.7% | 26.4% |
| Edge | +1.1% | +0.5% | -1.5% |
Why St Patrick's Athl.
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.94.
Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.4% per unit staked (our 47.0% × 2.10 − 1).
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians match preview
St Patrick's Athletic holds a slight advantage in the upcoming match against Bohemians, with a 47% probability of winning compared to Bohemians' 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of St Patrick's Athletic, with an expected goals tally of 1.54 for them and 0.94 for Bohemians. The recent form shows St Patrick's Athletic with two wins and a draw in their last three matches, while Bohemians has won four of their last six.
In terms of overall performance, St Patrick's Athletic has achieved three wins, five draws, and two losses in their last ten encounters with Bohemians. The model indicates a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% probability that both teams will score, reflecting a competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.48
St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians attack and defence ratings
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
Before and after this match
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 47.0% | 2.13 | +1.1% | 2.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.9% | 2.00 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 47.0% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Bohemians | 26.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.1% |
| No | 50.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | St Patrick's Athl. win | 26.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 49.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 11.7% | |
| 2-0 | 9.9% |
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians stats
St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians recent form
| St Patrick's Athl. |
DLLWWW |
| Bohemians |
LWLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
St Patrick's Athl. and Bohemians season so far
St Patrick's Athl. record
- They have won 17 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bohemians record
- They have won 18 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | St Patrick's Athl. | Bohemians | FAI Cup | 1-1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Bohemians | St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-24 | St Patrick's Athl. | Bohemians | Premier Division | 3-1 |
| 2026-02-08 | Bohemians | St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-20 | Bohemians | St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division | 0-0 |
| 2025-07-04 | St Patrick's Athl. | Bohemians | Premier Division | 0-0 |
| 2025-04-25 | Bohemians | St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division | 2-1 |
| 2025-03-14 | St Patrick's Athl. | Bohemians | Premier Division | 3-0 |
| 2024-10-14 | Bohemians | St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division | 1-3 |
| 2024-06-28 | St Patrick's Athl. | Bohemians | Premier Division | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
St Patrick's Athl. vs Bohemians odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.9%, draw 26.2%, away 27.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.01 | 3.56 | 3.42 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.07 | 3.55 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.99 | 3.56 | 3.42 |
| Pinnacle | 2.08 | 3.52 | 3.59 |
| SBO | 1.96 | 3.13 | 3.11 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .